As the Serie A season nears its conclusion, the battle for Champions League qualification remains intense. While the league champion is decided, three coveted spots are still up for grabs, with five teams fiercely competing for them.
Inter has secured the Scudetto after defeating Parma, leaving three Champions League places to be determined. This analysis examines the remaining schedules and probabilities for the top contenders.
Napoli – 70 points
Despite falling short of defending their title, Napoli appears to be in a strong position to secure Champions League football. A goalless draw against Como means they need just one win and one draw from their remaining three matches to guarantee a top-four finish.
Napoli’s upcoming fixtures include a match against ninth-placed Bologna, followed by an away game against struggling Pisa, which presents a strong opportunity for victory. Their final game is against Udinese. However, Udinese secured a 1-0 win against Napoli in December 2025, indicating a potential challenge.
Milan – 67 points
A loss to Sassuolo has intensified the pressure on Milan, leaving them only three points ahead of fifth-placed Roma. The Rossoneri must quickly recover from their recent setback.
While their next match against Atalanta will be challenging, their final two games are more manageable. Milan will travel to face Genoa on May 17 and then host Cagliari at the San Siro. Both Genoa and Cagliari are in the lower half of the table, and despite Genoa managing a 1-1 draw against Milan in January, the 19-time champions are expected to be confident.
Juventus – 65 points
Despite a 1-1 draw against Verona, Juventus remains optimistic. They are only one point ahead of Roma and have a favorable run of fixtures, facing only teams in the bottom half of the table.
Lecce could pose a challenge, but they have struggled recently with only one win in their last seven games. Juventus will be strong favorites in their matches against Fiorentina and Torino.
Roma – 64 points
Even with more losses than Napoli, Roma remains in contention for a Champions League spot. It has been seven seasons since their last appearance in the competition, but this streak could end if results go their way.
A recent win against Fiorentina has propelled them into fifth place. However, their path to the top four is more difficult. They face Parma away next, followed by the Derby della Capitale against Lazio. Roma has a strong record against Lazio, having not lost to them since January 2024.
If teams above them drop points, their qualification could be decided in their final match of the season against Verona on May 24.
Como – 62 points
A victory against Napoli would have put Como in control of their Champions League aspirations. Now, they need to win all three of their remaining games and hope for favorable results from other teams.
Como possesses the quality to win their upcoming matches, especially with fixtures against bottom-three teams Verona and Cremonese, as well as a home game against 12th-placed Parma. They have a strong recent record against Parma in Serie B. However, qualifying for the Champions League presents a significant challenge for the Lombardy-based club.
