In recent years, Wrexham has found itself in the spotlight, rapidly ascending the English football pyramid – from non-league status to the Championship in just three years. Now, their ultimate goal is the Premier League, a challenge that promises to be significantly more difficult.
The financial advantage gained from the club`s acquisition by actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney in 2020, bolstered by a popular docuseries, allowed Wrexham to navigate League One and League Two with relative ease. However, the realities of the Championship are quite different, and a fourth consecutive promotion will be considerably tougher. The “Red Dragons`” modest transfer policy suggests that even the club`s leadership understands that history is not on the side of Championship newcomers.
Typically, teams promoted from League One finish in mid-table, with relegation back being far more likely than further advancement. Over the past decade, only three times have all three teams promoted to the Championship managed to stay in the league, and only three teams in Championship history have achieved consecutive promotions all the way to the Premier League. All eyes will be on Wrexham to see if they can accomplish the improbable. Let`s examine how many points have historically been required for promotion to the Premier League.
Automatic Promotion: The Race for the Top Two Spots
Average point total in last 10 years: 93.45
The top two teams in the Championship secure direct promotion to the Premier League, and this usually demands a very high performance level. Of the 20 teams that achieved this in the last decade, 17 accumulated at least 90 points, with the average standing at 93.45 points (or 2.03 points per game in a 46-match season). The required targets continue to rise: five of the last six teams to gain automatic promotion earned 96 points or more. The lowest threshold for a top-two finish was 79 points (Stoke City in 2007-08 and Hull City in 2012-13), but this is more of an anomaly. Hopes for Wrexham or any other newly promoted team to reach such heights might be overly optimistic, as only three promoted sides have managed to finish in the top two in their inaugural Championship season.
The Playoff Route
Average point total in last 10 years: 78.625
The playoff route, involving teams ranked third through sixth, offers more flexibility. The points totals here vary significantly: while Sheffield United and Leeds United both qualified for the playoffs with 90 points in the last two years, last season`s Bristol City team and Leicester City in the 2012-13 season recorded the lowest points totals to secure a playoff spot. Over the past decade, playoff teams averaged 78.625 points. This is certainly a more attainable figure than the 90+ points required for automatic promotion, but still unlikely for Championship newcomers. Only three promoted sides have ever reached a playoff position at the end of the regular season, and none of them went on to win promotion.
How Do Newly Promoted Teams Typically Perform?
Average point total in last 10 years: 53.17
Promotion is rarely the primary goal for Championship newcomers; relegation is far more common. Although most teams promoted to the Championship over the last decade managed to survive the league, averaging 53.17 points, many were close to the relegation zone. The average finishing position for such teams is 17.53, just a few places above the spots guaranteeing a return to League One (22nd, 23rd, and 24th). Only three times in the last ten years have newcomers managed to finish in the top ten, including Sunderland (2022-23 season, reaching playoffs) and Ipswich Town (2023-24 season, finishing second). Perhaps Wrexham and other newly promoted teams should draw inspiration from the fact that no team has been automatically relegated back in the last two seasons, a reversal in a league where typically at least one newcomer returns to League One per campaign.
