Understanding Chelsea`s strategy for building their squad over the past three years doesn`t require extensive research. Todd Boehly has frequently articulated the club`s vision, including in February of this year.
“You identify what you believe are younger players that come together,” he stated, “a portfolio of players that are going to be consistent and reliable and have the potential to be together for a very long time.”
Regardless of one`s opinion on this plan in theory and practice, it`s difficult to fathom how a club committed to cultivating a young core and allowing it to mature would contemplate letting Noni Madueke leave. However, according to sources, this is precisely what Chelsea is doing, reportedly in discussions with rivals Arsenal regarding the sale of the England international. The potential transfer fee is close to $70 million, which is almost double the amount they paid PSV Eindhoven for him in January 2023.
Madueke is understood to have agreed to personal terms with Arsenal, but negotiations between the clubs are still in their initial stages. This implies there`s still an opportunity for Chelsea to reverse course on this particular transfer. Selling Madueke would contradict a team-building approach that has begun to show promising results over the last 18 months, most recently highlighted by the team reaching the Club World Cup final.
Allowing him to join Arsenal, in particular, would be a significant error.
Madueke on the Rise
By the conclusion of the 2024-25 season, it had become evident that Madueke was on the verge of developing into a seriously impressive winger. His raw output of 11 goals and five assists across 46 appearances in all competitions might not immediately capture attention, but a deeper dive reveals a player making a crucial leap. His finishing was somewhat below expectations, converting 9.64 non-penalty expected goals into just seven actual goals in the top flight. After a hat-trick early in the season against Wolves, goals didn`t come as readily, but it wasn`t due to a lack of effort. The same applied to his assists; three in the league from 4.2 expected goals assisted (xAG).
A critical factor that Arsenal, or any potential suitor, will assess in a 23-year-old wide forward is their ability to get shots on goal. For players in attacking positions, this trait is perhaps the most valuable: even if the ball isn`t finding the net, are they consistently getting into scoring positions? Madueke demonstrated this, averaging three and a half shots per 90 Premier League minutes. No player in his position took more, not Bukayo Saka nor even Mohamed Salah. These weren`t speculative attempts either; his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per shot more than doubled from 0.055 to 0.12, which is roughly the league average. These improvements are visually clear, showing a significantly higher proportion of shots taken from inside the box.
Watching these efforts back reveals the work Madueke put in to challenge goalkeepers. Early in the season, goals flowed more easily in a more direct Chelsea attack. As Enzo Maresca`s more structured approach took hold, Madueke increasingly had to beat defenders to create his shooting opportunities. Crucially, he succeeded in doing so. While he didn`t score in the 3-1 win over Liverpool in early May, the champions were fortunate; they struggled to contain Chelsea`s number 11 on both flanks.
Overall, Madueke`s npxG per 90 saw a dramatic rise last season, increasing from 0.15 to 0.42. This latter figure was surpassed by only three other wingers in the league: Salah, Luis Diaz, and Brennan Johnson. The latter two, however, do not offer the same level of ball-carrying ability as Madueke. Once again, Chelsea`s right winger, often the third attacking option behind Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson, ranks among the Premier League`s elite. The only wide players with more progressive carries than Madueke were Manchester City duo Savinho and Jeremy Doku. Those who follow City will know that even their combined Premier League goal tally didn`t match Madueke`s last season.
Madueke may not be the league`s best crosser, and his passing still needs refinement. Yet, it`s undeniable that in 2024-25, he significantly contributed to positive results. The statistics support this. His expected possession value added – a metric that measures how much each on-ball action increases the probability of scoring – is exceptionally high for a player who takes so many shots.
Some observers, relying purely on the “eye test,” might not place Madueke among the league`s top wide forwards. However, the data indicates otherwise. If he occasionally appears to run into dead ends or drive at full-backs he can`t bypass, making questionable decisions in an attempt to create something, well, that`s often characteristic of a winger`s playstyle.
Madueke has skeptics to win over. The sudden increase in reports linking him to Arsenal has provoked anger among some of their online fanbase – though this isn`t difficult to achieve. Perhaps they are wary of signing more former Chelsea players, given past experiences with Willian and Raheem Sterling.
Concerns might also exist about how he would integrate into the dressing room, especially considering Maresca has publicly raised questions about his attitude and work rate. However, delivering such valuable contributions despite a seemingly indifferent attitude hardly seems like the worst problem.
Legitimate questions also arise regarding resource allocation concerning Madueke, who has unfortunately faced muscle injury issues during his time at Chelsea. Arsenal is spending actively this summer, but even their budget has limits. Is it prudent to commit potentially $70-80 million for a player who profiles primarily as an excellent alternative to Bukayo Saka when there might be an opportunity to acquire a significant upgrade over Gabriel Martinelli on the opposite flank? Madueke has played on both wings for Chelsea but is more effective cutting inside from the right with his stronger left foot. In limited Premier League minutes on the left, he averaged fewer than three shots per 90 minutes and created barely any chances. He might also need to consider if the role Arsenal envisages for him is truly best for his development, although, given personal terms are reportedly agreed, it might be too late for second thoughts.
It`s possible that selling Madueke could ultimately benefit Chelsea. Willian Estevao showed promise in his recent match for Palmeiras against his future club. Jamie Gittens from Borussia Dortmund might also develop into a star. However, it`s crucial for Chelsea to recall the insight from former Liverpool director of research Ian Graham: even deals evaluated with high confidence across multiple factors essentially have a 50-50 chance of succeeding. Joao Pedro also offers Maresca more options, and while he scored plenty of penalties at Brighton, that`s not the same as replicating Madueke`s overall attacking impact.
Madueke`s acquisition has already paid off; he was a relatively low-cost signing from a secondary European league who has played over 2,000 minutes for a team that qualified for the Champions League. There`s no certainty that he will maintain last season`s significant upward trajectory, but if his development continues anywhere near that path, he is an outstanding player – one who could become a standout star in Boehly`s “portfolio” of talent.
