The Houston Rockets entered the preseason with high expectations, poised to challenge for the Western Conference title following significant acquisitions like Kevin Durant and veteran role players Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela.
With point guard Fred VanVleet, who inked a two-year, $50 million deal over the summer, set to lead the team, all the components seemed to be in place for Houston to vie for their first NBA championship since 1995 and contend against the Oklahoma City Thunder for the conference crown.
However, an unforeseen setback occurred during an unofficial team workout in the Bahamas, where VanVleet suffered a torn ACL. This injury could potentially sideline him for the entire upcoming season, leaving the Rockets with the critical task of filling his void both in the lineup and the locker room. The team now faces the challenge of strategically deploying players like Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard to maintain their competitive standing in the conference race.
Following Houston’s preseason game against the Atlanta Hawks, NBA analysts convened to dissect the implications of this injury on the team, its key players, and what potential roster adjustments Houston might consider to bolster its lineup.
Rockets Adjust to a New Reality
During a recent training camp cooldown at the Memorial Hermann Houston Rockets Training Center, coach Ime Udoka was observed in deep conversation with Kevin Durant, a discussion underscored by smooth R&B music playing in the background. Their dialogue underscored Durant’s evolving role in the wake of VanVleet`s injury.
Udoka confirmed that while Durant will be a pivotal offensive engine, the team’s approach to facilitating offense will be a collective effort. He told ESPN, “I think it will be different guys kind of thrust into a role. For instance, [second-year guard] Reed [Sheppard], you take Amen [Thompson], guys that have done it some with Fred being out at times on a smaller stage.”
Acknowledging VanVleet`s previous importance, Udoka added, “We really leaned on [VanVleet] the first few years to be that experience, that IQ out there at the point guard spot. But I think it`ll just be a committee, honestly, like different guys initiating offense. [Alperen Sengun] is a center that you can run a lot of things through. Kevin as well with the attention he attracts. So, it may not be the traditional point guard way, but we`ve got a lot of capable pieces out there to get it done.”
Udoka promptly addressed the team about the injury’s impact. Despite losing VanVleet, who was slated to be a veteran playmaker and defensive pillar, Udoka expressed confidence that the current roster possesses sufficient collective talent to compensate for his absence.
In Houston’s preseason opener against the Hawks, where Durant was rested, Udoka experimented with various players handling offensive initiation. The starting lineup featured Thompson, Sheppard, and Sengun, flanked by Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason. This combination quickly established an early 16-9 lead against Atlanta’s starting unit.
“I feel like [we can] win a lot of games,” Sheppard remarked. “Expectations are high. We`ve just got to come out and control what we can control. The coaches will have us in the situations they want us in. So we`ll just play how we know how to play and have fun.”
Despite Setback, VanVleet Injury is Not a Derailment
The Houston Rockets’ aggressive moves to acquire Durant, Finney-Smith, and Capela clearly signaled their ambition to immediately contend in the Western Conference. Any team would be profoundly affected by the loss of their veteran captain and starting point guard to a season-ending injury. For the Rockets, the challenge is that their most direct replacements, such as part-time ball-handler Amen Thompson, who has limited experience at the position despite a significant defensive role, or Reed Sheppard, a promising 2024 No. 3 pick with minimal rookie season playtime, are not typical options for a contending team.
However, the Rockets are not without options for initiating offense. Kevin Durant is an offensive powerhouse in his own right, and Alperen Sengun stands out as one of the league`s premier passing big men, capable of serving as an offensive hub. Yet, these players primarily offer secondary playmaking, lacking the primary, frontline leadership that VanVleet consistently provided.
Despite this significant hurdle, the injury is not considered a complete derailment for the team`s season. Houston possesses considerable depth and a long-term outlook, but VanVleet`s absence undeniably presents a serious problem. Coach Udoka has begun formulating strategies to manage this situation, but a definitive solution remains elusive. This uncertainty makes the Rockets one of the most compelling storylines in the Western Conference as the season approaches.
Rockets Still Need to Address Thompson’s Minutes
Based on my statistical projections for wins, the loss of VanVleet delivers a significant blow to the Rockets. While comprehensive win expectations for all 30 NBA teams will be released later, an initial assessment placed Houston with the league`s fourth-best projection, a figure consistent with, or perhaps even slightly conservative given, the enthusiasm generated by the summer’s trade for Durant.
Replacing VanVleet’s playing time by allocating minutes to guards Sheppard and Aaron Holiday, along with expanded roles for already projected key rotation players like Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr., is predicted to decrease the Rockets` projected win total by nearly four games.
Unless the Rockets consistently opt for large lineups, this situation will likely necessitate substantially increased roles for Sheppard and Holiday, who were initially competing for backup guard minutes. As rookies, Sheppard played only 654 minutes and Holiday 792 minutes, highlighting the jump in responsibility they now face.
While natural attention focuses on VanVleet’s role as a point guard and the spacing he provided, my projections actually indicate Houston might miss him more significantly on the defensive end of the court. While Sheppard could potentially improve the team’s shooting in his second NBA season and Thompson and Sengun are expected to enhance their playmaking, VanVleet’s robust defensive presence was an underrated yet crucial factor in the Rockets’ defense, which ranked seventh in defensive rating.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Houston allowed 1.9 more points per 100 possessions when VanVleet was on the bench compared to when he was on the court, a larger defensive drop-off than the 1.3 points per 100 possessions decrease observed without him on offense.
Without VanVleet, I project the Rockets to finish with the seventh-best offensive rating and eleventh-best defensive rating. They remain contenders for home-court advantage, holding the fifth-best win projection in the West. This outlook also considers the possibility of mid-season roster adjustments if Sheppard’s development doesn’t meet expectations.
Nevertheless, the Rockets no longer appear to be the immediate threat to the Oklahoma City Thunder that was envisioned after they successfully bolstered their depth post-Durant trade by signing Finney-Smith. Prior to VanVleet’s injury, I had identified backup point guard as the team’s most significant weakness; now, this void has become more pronounced than ever.
Limited Backcourt Help on the Horizon
Houston currently has an open roster spot and is expected to apply for a $12.5 million disabled player exception. Should the NBA confirm that VanVleet will be sidelined until mid-June, the league would typically grant this exception, allowing Houston to sign or trade for a player on a one-year contract.
However, even if the estimated $14 million exception is approved, Houston would currently be unable to use it to sign a player (such as former Rockets guard Russell Westbrook) because the team is only $1.25 million below the first apron. The offseason moves made by Houston imposed a hard cap on the team at this level.
The Rockets could explore trade options to compensate for VanVleet`s absence. They possess five tradeable first-round picks, including an unprotected 2027 Phoenix first-rounder and two of the more favorable 2029 first-round picks (their own, along with those from the Suns and Mavericks). Additionally, they hold the right to swap first-round picks with Brooklyn in 2027.
Despite these valuable draft assets, Houston faces a significant hurdle: a scarcity of tradeable contracts.
Eight players signed by Houston this past summer—VanVleet, Steven Adams, Finney-Smith, Aaron Holiday, Jae`Sean Tate, Jeff Green, Josh Okogie, and Clint Capela—are ineligible to be traded until mid-December. Furthermore, both Holiday and Tate retain the right to approve any trade involving them.
Jabari Smith, who recently signed a rookie extension, is subject to a “poison pill” restriction, making him exceptionally difficult to trade; it has been nearly 17 years since a player with such a restriction was successfully moved.
With nine key players effectively off the trade block, Houston’s remaining tradeable assets are limited to starters Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson, alongside reserves Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason. The combined salary of these two reserves totals $16.3 million, underscoring the team`s highly constrained flexibility in acquiring immediate backcourt reinforcements.
