Unai Emery finds himself back in his element. Following a troubling 1-1 draw against Sunderland, where Aston Villa registered their first league goal of the season, the club`s manager is relying on the Europa League to provide the much-needed impetus it has historically given him.
Emery`s impressive record in the competition, boasting four trophies (three with Sevilla and the 2021 title with Villarreal), positions him as the most decorated manager in the history of both the Europa League and its precursor, the UEFA Cup. His influence extends beyond victories; he led Arsenal to the final in 2019 and reached the quarter and semifinals with Atletico Madrid. This tournament consistently invigorates the 53-year-old and his squad, a quality he urgently requires.
Presently, Aston Villa appears to be on the brink. Although their current predicament isn`t as severe as previous periods – the club was battling for Premier League survival when Emery arrived and its long-term viability was questionable less than ten years ago – a club aspiring for numerous Champions League encounters likely didn`t anticipate meeting the same opponent (Bologna) in a less prestigious setting just 12 months later.
Transfer Market Troubles and PSR Impact
Aston Villa is experiencing significant repercussions from their inability to secure Champions League qualification. A substantial financial outlay in January was aimed at a top-five push, involving loan deals for Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio, alongside a near-$30 million acquisition of Donyell Malen, despite his ineligibility for their European squad. While the transfer of academy graduate Jacob Ramsey to Newcastle provided funds for summer recruitment, the market for experienced players has since become less active. This has resulted in Villa possessing the league`s second-oldest squad, only surpassed by Fulham. Emiliano Martinez`s struggles to finalize a desired transfer to Manchester United highlight a broader trend: clubs are hesitant to invest heavily in players with only a limited number of peak years remaining.
Significant discontent has surfaced in Birmingham concerning the impact of Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR), with Ezri Konsa remarking during the international break that it had “severely hampered” Villa. Yet, attributing blame to regulations established long before their recent spending spree overlooks the fact that a considerable portion of their recruitment over the last three years did not bolster the squad Emery inherited and significantly improved. Only two of the ten players who have featured in three or more Premier League starts this season, Morgan Rogers and Youri Tielemans, were acquisitions made for the current coach. Numerous transfers appear to have been strategic moves dictated by PSR, frequently leading to young talents spending prolonged periods on loan without ever fully establishing themselves at the club.
Navigating a successful transfer window becomes arduous when competitors possess immense financial flexibility and previous management has constrained your options. Nevertheless, if anyone was anticipated to orchestrate transfer market wonders, it was Monchi, whose formidable collaboration with Emery was pivotal to Sevilla`s triumphs. He ultimately failed to replicate the discovery of talents like Dani Alves or Ivan Rakitic at Villa Park and has since departed for Spain due to personal reasons. His replacement is another highly regarded Spanish talent scout, and it will be fascinating to observe if former Real Sociedad director of football Roberto Olabe can successfully exploit emerging markets such as Ecuador, where his tenure at Independiente del Valle was instrumental in cultivating a “golden generation” that includes Piero Hincapie and Pervis Estupinan.
Emery`s Frustration and Tactical Questions
The exit of a crucial associate will undoubtedly prompt scrutiny for Emery, who has struggled to mask his displeasure with a season start marred by four draws and two defeats. Matty Cash`s recent goal at the Stadium of Light meant Villa was the final team across England`s top four divisions to register a score, yet Emery lambasted his “lazy” players for their concession against a ten-man Sunderland, who appeared more threatening in securing a winning goal. Presently, there`s no sign that the manager`s palpable frustration is mirrored by either the supporters or the club`s hierarchy. In three seasons, he has, after all, guided the team from the relegation zone to successive European campaigns. Ultimately, it is financial growth, more so than tactical acumen, that will solidify the West Midlands club`s position among the Premier League`s elite.
Nevertheless, this sluggish beginning to the season introduces some concerns about Aston Villa. While acknowledging Emery has positioned Villa as a top-eight side, one wonders if their fourth-place finish in 2023-24 owed more to the erratic form of Chelsea and Newcastle, rather than solely Villa`s consistent strong performances. Across Emery`s two full seasons, Villa`s non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) stands at 6.39 – a commendable figure, yet more comparable to teams like Brighton and Crystal Palace than to Chelsea or Newcastle, suggesting their attacking prowess lacks the potency seen among last season`s top five.
A more profound question arises: is the Premier League`s shifting tactical landscape conducive to Emery`s style? The league increasingly prioritizes athleticism, dynamic wing play, and swift counter-attacks. While Villa possesses players who could theoretically adopt this approach, particularly if Morgan Rogers can rediscover his international form at club level, it doesn`t align seamlessly with a coach whose teams often exhibit caution when operating in wide areas. With a limited five-game league sample, could an npxGD of -3.87 – a statistic only worse than Burnley`s – be hinting at Emery`s struggles to adapt to this evolving footballing meta?
Europa League as Salvation
The Europa League, perhaps, represents their salvation. As an English representative, Villa will inherently possess greater physical attributes, pace, and technical ability than the majority of teams they encounter. Bookmakers have already positioned them as clear favorites to lift the trophy. Those familiar with Emery`s only full season at Arsenal will recall his willingness to sacrifice league priorities in pursuit of European silverware. Considering Villa`s current league form suggests a top-five finish is unlikely this season, Emery may swiftly determine that the Europa League offers the most viable route to Champions League qualification.
Should Emery secure yet another Europa League triumph, his standing as one of Aston Villa`s most significant modern managers would become irrefutable. He would have elevated the club to a far more prosperous state than it has experienced in three largely outstanding years. Conversely, if their Premier League struggles infiltrate their European adventure, Villa`s path to Istanbul risks becoming a formidable challenge.
