This week`s NHL analysis delves into several compelling storylines:
- The potential trade of Jarry by the Penguins after acquiring Silovs.
- The Ducks` strategic long-term deal for Dostal.
- The Golden Knights` need for a more reliable goaltending partner for Hill.
- Jet Greaves` strong case for a starting role with the Blue Jackets.
Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins
Teams seeking to enhance their goaltending depth face limited choices. With top free-agent goalies mostly suited for backup roles, trades remain the primary avenue for significant upgrades. However, few teams are actively seeking new netminders, and even fewer viable trade options exist. The Edmonton Oilers, contemplating their future with Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, might be among those considering a trade. Despite reaching consecutive Cup Finals with their current duo, the Oilers` success was often achieved despite, rather than because of, their goaltending.
Given Edmonton`s tight salary cap, any goaltending acquisition would necessitate complex cap management and a strong conviction that the new player represents a clear upgrade. Discussions have circulated regarding Tristan Jarry, a former Edmonton junior player, as a potential target. However, acquiring him would be a considerable gamble, as Jarry, 30, is coming off a dismal season. He was even demoted to the AHL after clearing waivers, ending the year with an .893 save percentage and over a 3.00 goals-against average for a Pittsburgh team that missed the playoffs for the third straight year.
Despite the inherent risks, this might be the opportune moment to acquire Jarry. His recent struggles mean he could be a `buy-low` candidate, requiring a less significant trade package. If the Penguins retain part of his salary, his cap hit could drop to around the $3 million range, mitigating risk and making his contract more manageable for the Oilers.
Following their acquisition of Arturs Silovs, the Penguins might be open to trading Jarry. Their likely objective next season could be to secure the top draft pick rather than making a playoff push. While Jarry, despite his poor performance, might still be their strongest goaltending option, moving him and relying on a Silovs-Joel Blomqvist tandem could ironically improve their odds in the draft lottery.
The critical question for the Oilers is whether Jarry would genuinely upgrade their goaltending. His last season`s statistics suggest otherwise. However, a more optimistic view would highlight his limited 36 games played. Half of these were `quality starts` (save percentage above .900), including nine in his final 14 appearances. The primary concern was his extreme inconsistency: 10 games saw him surrender four or more goals, significantly impacting his overall figures. Despite this, Jarry`s career spans nearly 300 games, with generally solid performance.
The expectation for Jarry in Edmonton would be a return to his previous form, benefiting from a stronger team environment. Despite his recent struggles, his career save percentage remains a respectable .909, with a 152-97-31 record. This career average surpasses the league average save percentage for the last five seasons. Furthermore, Pittsburgh`s poor defensive play in 2024-25 (26th in high-danger chances allowed) undoubtedly impacted his numbers. In contrast, the Oilers ranked fourth in this metric, giving up 134 fewer high-danger chances than the Penguins.
It`s plausible that Jarry would perform better in Edmonton than he did in Pittsburgh last season, given the low benchmark for improvement. The Oilers` current goaltending duo of Skinner and Pickard posted a combined .888 save percentage in the last playoffs, a mark Jarry has consistently exceeded throughout his career.
The decision likely hinges on the trade cost and the amount of Jarry`s salary the Penguins are willing to retain. If Pittsburgh can absorb $2-3 million of his cap hit, and the Oilers can acquire him without a significant asset outlay, the potential upside could be worthwhile. A Skinner-Jarry tandem with a combined cap hit below $6 million would be reasonable in the current salary cap landscape. However, his full current salary would represent excessive risk for Edmonton.
In conclusion, should the Oilers genuinely seek to upgrade their goaltending, Jarry might be one of the few realistic options available, despite the inherent gamble.
Lukas Dostal, Anaheim Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks` active offseason was highlighted by their crucial five-year, $6.5 million AAV extension with Lukas Dostal, securing him for several unrestricted free agency years.
While Dostal`s raw statistics might appear modest (a career .902-.903 save percentage over 121 games), they don`t fully reflect his performance. Considering the challenging circumstances he`s faced early in his career, the 25-year-old has been quite effective for the Ducks.
Anaheim`s consistently weak defensive play has impacted Dostal`s numbers; they allowed a league-high 847 high-danger chances in 2024-25, and ranked 26th the season before. Despite this lack of defensive support, Dostal excelled, recording 14.3 goals saved above expected last season and demonstrating his ability to perform under pressure. He began the season exceptionally, with a .945 save percentage in October, achieving seven quality starts in eight appearances.
Dostal`s strong start came while John Gibson was injured, proving his capability to manage a significant workload and perform optimally with consistent play. With Gibson now departed, Dostal faces minimal competition for the starting role, suggesting a much larger role in 2025-26. Anaheim`s decision to trade Gibson signifies their strong confidence in Dostal, who may just be beginning to tap into his full potential.
Adin Hill, Vegas Golden Knights
While the Vegas Golden Knights made a significant offseason move by acquiring Mitch Marner, other roster needs still require attention.
Goaltending is one such area. With Ilya Samsonov unlikely to return as Adin Hill`s backup and remaining a free agent, Akira Schmid is the sole alternative. Schmid`s limited experience (48 career appearances) and inconsistent performance present a risk, especially if Hill were to suffer an injury and require a prolonged absence.
Another concern is Hill`s workload capacity. Last season, he played a career-high 50 games, and his performance noticeably declined in the playoffs, culminating in an .887 save percentage. He particularly struggled against the Edmonton Oilers, conceding three or more goals in all but one game. Historically, Hill`s peak appearances were 35 games, suggesting he benefited significantly from sharing starts with a partner like Logan Thompson.
Vegas would likely benefit from acquiring a more dependable goaltending partner for Hill to ensure his optimal performance during critical games. This will be challenging due to limited options and their cap constraints, which would likely exclude a player like Jarry even with salary retention. Furthermore, Vegas`s defense, once a league strength, will be weakened in 2025-26 by Alex Pietrangelo`s injury and Nic Hague`s departure, placing additional pressure on their goaltenders.
With Hill signed for six years at over $6 million annually, he must justify this investment by returning to his Stanley Cup-winning form. While the Golden Knights typically expect a goaltending advantage over teams like the Oilers in the playoffs, this did not materialize last season. Reducing Hill`s workload might be crucial for him to regain his top performance.
Jet Greaves, Columbus Blue Jackets
The Columbus Blue Jackets narrowly missed the playoffs last season, but goaltender Jet Greaves certainly gave it his all.
Called up late in the season, Greaves concluded the campaign with an impressive 5-0-0 record and a .975 save percentage, conceding only four goals across five starts. Although a small sample size, Greaves has consistently performed well when given the chance, suggesting he`s due for a more extended opportunity in 2025-26.
Columbus has endured long-standing goaltending issues, with Elvis Merzlikins recording sub-.900 save percentages for three straight seasons. Initial optimism surrounding Daniil Tarasov faded as he posted an .881 save percentage in 2024-25 before being traded to Florida. This situation opens the door for Greaves to contend with Merzlikins for playing time; even a performance half as good as his late-season surge could secure him significant starts.
One might ponder where the Blue Jackets would have finished last season with even average goaltending. Despite a top-10 offense, their team save percentage ranked 22nd, indicating an inability to stop pucks. Missing the playoffs by only two points highlights the immense impact a few additional saves could have made. If Greaves maintains his impressive form for this promising young team, a playoff berth for the Blue Jackets next spring would not be surprising.
