This week, ESPN released its annual NBA Summer Forecast, offering a comprehensive look at various potential developments across the league. The forecast covered everything from individual awards and championship aspirations to anticipated team turmoil and significant turnarounds.
Our panel of experts voted on where each of the 30 NBA teams is expected to finish in the end-of-season standings, providing an early snapshot of how the Eastern and Western Conferences might unfold. However, it`s essential to remember that the consensus view doesn`t always prove to be correct. For example, our awards forecast for the 2024-25 season famously missed every single prediction.
With that cautionary note in mind, this article will delve into five teams that are well-positioned to exceed their projected win totals this season, as well as five others that might fall short of expectations next spring.
Five Teams Expected to Exceed Expectations
Oklahoma City Thunder
Forecast: 64-18
Last season, Oklahoma City joined an elite group, becoming only the 22nd team in league history to achieve at least 65 victories. Historically, only two franchises have managed to match or surpass such a high win total in the following season: the Chicago Bulls in 1995-96 and 1996-97 (72 and 69 wins, respectively) and the Golden State Warriors across the 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17 seasons (67, 73, and 67 wins, respectively).
For other teams that reached the 65-win threshold, their win totals typically dropped by an average of more than seven games the subsequent year. The Warriors in 2015-16 remain the sole exception where a team either met or improved upon its previous season`s win total.
Why might the defending champions defy this historical trend? Several factors suggest this is possible: a further weakened Eastern Conference due to significant player injuries in Indiana and Boston (the Thunder recorded an impressive 29-1 against the conference last season), a fully returning roster that is still developing, and increased playing time for Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, who combined to miss 75 games last season. When either big man was available, OKC posted a remarkable 59-10 record, a pace equivalent to 70 wins.
While a 70-win season is improbable, the Thunder could easily achieve the league`s best record and become just the third team to secure at least 65 wins in consecutive seasons. The skepticism from coaches, scouts, and executives ESPN has surveyed this summer regarding a Thunder repeat seems unwarranted.
LA Clippers
Forecast: 50-32
The Clippers were a pleasant surprise last season, recording 50 wins despite being projected as a borderline play-in contender. This achievement was particularly noteworthy given Paul George`s departure to the Philadelphia 76ers and Kawhi Leonard`s limited availability (just 37 games), underscoring Coach Tyronn Lue`s excellent management of the roster throughout the year.
This summer, the Clippers executed significant roster adjustments, transforming Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, Ben Simmons, and Patty Mills into Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, John Collins, and Brook Lopez. These strategic moves have made LA one of the deepest teams in the NBA and have garnered considerable praise from rival scouts and executives for their shrewd offseason maneuvers.
This Clippers roster presents a stark contrast to OKC`s youthful core: only three rotation players are under 30, and none are below 27. However, the Clippers can mitigate potential age and injury risks by leveraging their strong coaching and exceptional depth. This approach should enable them to build on last year`s success and surpass their previous win total.
Golden State Warriors
Forecast: 48-34
Similar to the Clippers, the Warriors are projected to match their previous season`s win total and feature an older roster. It`s important to note that this projection is based on a roster that is currently incomplete, as Golden State awaits a resolution to the Jonathan Kuminga restricted free agency situation.
This prediction largely hinges on the continued evolution of the Stephen Curry-Jimmy Butler III partnership. Despite the ongoing Butler drama last season, Golden State achieved an impressive 22-5 record in the 27 games where Curry and Butler played together. While there are undeniable risks associated with player age and potential injuries (including the anticipated additions of Al Horford, De`Anthony Melton, and Gary Payton II, all expected to join once the Kuminga situation is resolved), this team appears well-positioned to exceed its forecast as long as Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green remain reasonably healthy.
Miami Heat
Forecast: 39-43
Speaking of Butler, it might be surprising to see his former team featured here. Amid the trade discussions surrounding Butler, Miami endured a disappointing 37-45 season last year, culminating in a play-in tournament appearance as the 10th seed before being eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round.
However, Miami has strengthened its roster by adding Norman Powell, who averaged 21.8 points per game last season with the Clippers. This acquisition should significantly boost the Heat`s 21st-ranked offense. Additionally, the Heat had a poor 14-28 record in clutch games last season, representing the third-worst winning percentage in the NBA. This factor, combined with a seemingly weaker Eastern Conference, positions Miami as a strong candidate to surpass their predicted win total.
Toronto Raptors
Forecast: 33-49
Toronto concluded last season with a 30-52 record, seemingly prioritizing draft positioning. This was also without Brandon Ingram playing a single minute with the team after a midseason trade from the New Orleans Pelicans.
It`s challenging to envision a scenario where the Raptors remain in this lower tier from a win perspective – especially within the Eastern Conference – unless they suffer a severe wave of injuries to their roster.
When the Raptors began to reshape their roster a couple of years ago under then-executive Masai Ujiri, the intention was a swift return to contention. The subsequent moves, including trading for and extending Ingram, align with this philosophy. Teams that enter the season in the luxury tax, as Toronto is, typically do not expect to miss the play-in tournament.
Five Teams Expected to Fall Short of Expectations
Minnesota Timberwolves
Forecast: 51-31
Minnesota has only achieved more than 51 wins twice in its franchise history: in 2004 and 2024. Last season, the Timberwolves reached their second consecutive Western Conference Finals but finished with 49 wins, placing sixth in the regular season standings.
This Timberwolves team saw Nickeil Alexander-Walker depart in free agency this summer, necessitating a greater contribution from young players like Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark, while still relying heavily on veterans Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. If either aging veteran experiences significant time off the court due to injury, the Timberwolves lack a clear, experienced replacement. Naz Reid, who signed a five-year, $125 million deal this summer to return as a free agent, isn`t defensively robust enough to compensate for Gobert`s absence. Moreover, last year`s No. 8 pick, Rob Dillingham, remains a significant question mark regarding his readiness to eventually take over from Conley.
Despite these concerns, Minnesota, led by Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, a versatile roster, and Chris Finch`s coaching, will undoubtedly be a formidable opponent next spring. However, improving upon last year`s win total could prove challenging given the intense competition in the West and the lingering questions about their roster depth.
Detroit Pistons
Forecast: 47-35
Last season was transformative for the Pistons, who dramatically improved from 14 to 44 wins, witnessed Cade Cunningham`s ascent to an All-NBA player, made the playoffs for the first time since 2019, and secured a playoff victory for the first time since 2008.
Such breakthrough seasons often lead into a “consolidation year,” and Detroit`s offseason approach suggested an awareness of this possibility. Duncan Robinson replaced Tim Hardaway Jr., Caris LeVert took over for Malik Beasley, and a healthy Jaden Ivey is expected to fill Dennis Schroder`s rotation spot after his move to the Sacramento Kings in free agency. Crucially, this team will rely on young talents like Ivey, Ron Holland II, Jalen Duren, and Ausar Thompson to further expand their roles alongside Cunningham.
Detroit should comfortably compete for a top-6 playoff position. Given the current state of the Eastern Conference, the Pistons might not even need the projected three-win increase to achieve this goal.
Dallas Mavericks
Forecast: 44-38
Dallas is set to be one of the NBA`s most intriguing teams this season. Their narrative includes introducing Cooper Flagg to the professional league, deploying exceptionally large lineups, the ongoing ramifications of the Luka Doncic trade, and the uncertain return of Kyrie Irving from a torn ACL sustained in March. As things stand, D`Angelo Russell, a competent but perhaps more suitable backup point guard, is the only reliable primary ball-handler on the roster.
This, coupled with Anthony Davis`s recurring health issues – he missed six weeks with a groin injury following his Dallas debut and underwent surgery for a detached retina in July – makes surpassing a 44-win season a formidable challenge in the highly competitive Western Conference.
San Antonio Spurs
Forecast: 44-38
In his second season, Victor Wembanyama has already established himself as the league`s preeminent defensive force.
However, despite Wembanyama`s brilliance, this Spurs roster still appears to be under construction rather than a fully formed contender. A key challenge lies with the guard trio of De`Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle.
The Spurs face the task of integrating these three talented but inconsistent-shooting guards, and teaching them to play effectively alongside Wembanyama. This strategic puzzle is a major talking point around the league, with significant implications for the future shaping of the Spurs` roster.
That`s a considerable amount for first-time head coach Mitch Johnson to sort out. While Wembanyama`s individual talent could potentially elevate the team beyond this forecast, the numerous uncertainties in San Antonio suggest that predicting them to fall short remains the safer option.
Portland Trail Blazers
Forecast: 39-43
Portland concluded last season with 36 wins, largely due to a strong late-season surge where they secured victories against teams resting key players for the playoffs or deliberately positioning themselves for better draft picks.
While Portland did trade Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday this summer, the source of additional wins remains unclear. The Blazers aim to blend seasoned veterans like Holiday and Jerami Grant with a young core featuring Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan. They are also banking on the defensive improvement observed in the second half of last season – where they ranked tied for fourth-best in the NBA from January 15th onwards – being more indicative than their 25th-ranked defense from the first half of 2024-25.
Portland possesses intriguing defensive players in Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, and Clingan to build around, and replacing Simons with a defensive stopper like Holiday will certainly help. Nevertheless, in an exceptionally competitive conference, the prediction here is that Portland will struggle to improve upon last season`s performance.
