The NBA`s Christmas Day schedule traditionally features the league`s best teams, often providing an early look at potential championship contenders. Following a thrilling holiday slate, we take a closer look at these 10 elite squads, using one defining statistic for each to analyze their reasons for genuine title optimism and the key areas that should be cause for concern, based on their probability of reaching the Finals according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI).
Oklahoma City Thunder (64.4% Finals chance)
The Thunder’s defense is operating at a historically unprecedented level, allowing 9.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average. Since defensive ratings were first recorded in 1973-74, this rate surpasses the previous record of 8.8 set by the 2003-04 Spurs. OKC’s championship defense from last season has elevated to a near-perfect unit in the current campaign.
A major point of discussion is Oklahoma City’s unbalanced schedule. During their dominant 24-1 start, only 12% (three of 25 games) were played against the league`s genuine top-tier contenders (Detroit, New York, or the top six teams in the West). Looking ahead, 37% of their remaining 57 games are against this elite competition. Against the best teams so far, the Thunder hold a shaky 3-4 record with a negative point differential, highlighting that their path to the Finals will be significantly tougher than their record suggests.
New York Knicks (35.7% Finals chance)
New York’s crucial trio of wings—Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart—are collectively connecting on 40% of their 3-point attempts, with all three hitting 38% or better. This is a vital improvement over last season`s 35.7% mark. If opponents must respect these shooters, it prevents them from easily double-teaming stars Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, unlocking the Knicks’ offense.
Though his percentage recently rose from 22%, Mitchell Robinson’s free-throw average of 40% remains a serious liability. Given his importance to the team’s rebounding and interior defense (New York has a +8.5 net rating with him on the floor), the risk of opponents utilizing “Hack-a-Mitch” tactics in the playoffs—where Robinson is a career 39% shooter—could derail crucial playoff possessions.
Denver Nuggets (12.7% Finals chance)
The Nuggets are finally stabilizing when Nikola Jokic is off the floor, registering a net rating of only Negative-1.1 points per 100 possessions. This is a dramatic improvement over the previous four seasons, where the non-Jokic minutes consistently bled points, reaching as low as Negative-10.4. The acquisitions of Jonas Valanciunas, Bruce Brown, and Tim Hardaway Jr. have successfully fortified the bench, a crucial development for playoff longevity.
While the Nuggets boast the most efficient offense in league history, their defense ranks 17th overall. A key contributor to this defensive slump is their vulnerability to corner 3-pointers, which account for a league-high 12% of their opponents` shot attempts. If Denver cannot tighten up its perimeter rotations, even their historic offense might not be enough to secure a title.
Houston Rockets (12.4% Finals chance)
Powered by Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun, and a massive rotation, the Rockets` offensive rebounding rate is 43% higher than the league average, establishing an NBA record margin. In an era of low offensive rebounding, Houston’s rate is the highest since the 1994-95 season. This second-chance advantage could be pivotal in a tight playoff series, echoing how the 2015-16 Thunder used offensive boards to push the 73-9 Warriors to Game 7.
Among 174 players who have taken at least 100 jump shots this season, Amen Thompson ranks last with a 26% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) on jumpers, while Sengun ranks near the bottom at 42%. While stars like Kevin Durant offer knockdown shooting, the ultimate success of the Rockets depends on the development of this young duo. Their struggle to score away from the basket could make late-game playoff offense predictable and congested.
Cleveland Cavaliers (9.9% Finals chance)
Despite their slow 17-15 start, Cleveland is only 1.5 games away from securing a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference. Only two teams in the East have 10 losses or fewer, compared to six in the West. This relatively forgiving Eastern Conference landscape provides a path for the Cavaliers to recover, much like the 2021-22 Celtics, who started 25-25 before finishing 26-6 and reaching the Finals.
The Cavaliers are the only team significantly exceeding the second luxury tax apron, sitting over $22 million above the threshold. This financial constraint severely limits their ability to improve the roster mid-season. They are prohibited from taking back more money in trades, cannot aggregate salaries, and are blocked from signing buyout players whose pre-buyout salary exceeded the league average. This lack of flexibility hampers their ability to climb out of their current slump.
San Antonio Spurs (6.1% Finals chance)
The Thunder’s league-leading defense allows 104.6 points per 100 possessions. When Victor Wembanyama is on the court, the Spurs’ defense allows an astonishing 101.7 points per 100 possessions. Wembanyama single-handedly transforms an otherwise average defensive unit into a terrifying force, proving his elite defensive rating is second only to the four best players on the Oklahoma City squad.
Young Spurs guards Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle are shooting a combined 28.8% from behind the arc. While lineups featuring Wembanyama, Castle, and Harper have been wildly successful in limited minutes (a plus-51.1 net rating), their inability to consistently hit long-range shots provides a potential warning sign. In the playoffs, disciplined defenses will crowd Wembanyama inside and dare his teammates to hit open perimeter jumpers, a key test for San Antonio’s readiness to contend in the West.
Golden State Warriors (1.2% Finals chance)
Excluding the Thunder, the Warriors boast the best defensive rating (111.0) in the Western Conference. Given that their previous championship teams ranked first, second, 11th, and second defensively, the Warriors continue to profile as dark-horse contenders thanks to their defensive identity, championed by Draymond Green.
The flip side of their defensive strength is a significant offensive weakness: Golden State ranks just 23rd in offensive rating. A major culprit is their lack of easy interior scoring, as they average only 42 points per game in the paint. This is the fewest of any team other than the Nets, and marks the worst paint scoring output of the Stephen Curry era (excluding the injury-ravaged 2019-20 season). Championship Warriors teams always ranked higher in this category, peaking between second and 16th.
Minnesota Timberwolves (1.4% Finals chance)
Despite concerns over the decision to move 38-year-old Mike Conley and start Donte DiVincenzo, the new five-man unit (DiVincenzo, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert) has been phenomenal. In a league-high 264 minutes, this group holds a plus-11.2 net rating. Only three five-man lineups with comparable minutes last season had a better rating, and those teams were all major contenders.
Minnesota’s lack of a traditional point guard is most apparent in crunch time. The Timberwolves suffer from a league-worst clutch turnover rate of 18.4%. Turnover rate typically decreases in the clutch across the NBA, but the opposite is true for Minnesota. These late-game giveaways have directly resulted in critical losses, and they must eliminate these sacrificed possessions to survive close playoff games.
Los Angeles Lakers (1.1% Finals chance)
While clutch performance often relies on luck, the Lakers` 10-0 record in close games stands in stark contrast to their 9-10 record in all other contests. A team featuring three elite creators (Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves) and the league’s best free-throw differential is built to thrive in tight situations. No Western contender will be eager to face this squad in the final minutes of a tie game, suggesting they can consistently overachieve when pressure mounts.
The Lakers` overall net rating suggests they “should” have approximately 14.1 wins, a gap of 4.9 wins from their actual total of 19—the largest discrepancy in the league. There is virtually no precedent in the modern NBA for a champion with such a mediocre resume (currently being outscored by 0.5 points per game). The 1994-95 Rockets hold the modern record for the worst point differential for a champion (plus-2.1), illustrating the historical challenge the Lakers face if they cannot improve their overall play.
Dallas Mavericks (0.0% Finals chance)
The Mavericks’ early season struggles stemmed from lacking a true point guard, but undrafted rookie Ryan Nembhard has been a revelation. Since he joined the starting lineup on November 28, Dallas`s offensive rating has skyrocketed by 12.0 points per 100 possessions. Before Nembhard, the team was 5-14 and ranked 30th in offense; with him running the show, they are 7-6 and rank 9th in offensive efficiency.
The Mavericks are primarily focused on their future, making the health of 21-year-old center Dereck Lively II a major worry. Foot surgery recently ended his 2025-26 campaign early, leaving him with only 98 total games played across his three seasons. This lack of consistent availability (just 40% of available games) raises questions about the long-term viability of the core featuring Lively, Cooper Flagg, and Nembhard.
