Author: NBA insiders
As the NBA gears up for its 80th season in 2025-26, league experts have provided their extensive insights. Following earlier predictions on key awards and conference standings, this summer forecast now concludes with projections for the Eastern and Western Conference champions, culminating in the ultimate NBA Finals winner.
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the season with a monumental goal: to become the first team since 2018 to achieve back-to-back championships. This would break a remarkable streak of seven consecutive seasons with a different champion, but they face a league brimming with formidable challengers.
In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers, who boasted the second-best regular-season record last season, face a challenging start due to offseason injuries to key players Darius Garland and Max Strus. However, the conference finals are a distant prospect, and with a healthy roster, they are strong favorites. The New York Knicks, under new coach Mike Brown, also possess ample postseason experience and flexibility under the salary cap`s second apron, allowing them to potentially make significant roster adjustments mid-season. The Orlando Magic made an aggressive move for Desmond Bane, a gamble that hinges on their ability to truly contend for the conference title.
Experts were polled to rank their top selections for the Eastern and Western Conference titles, as well as the overall NBA champion. A first-place vote garnered five points, a second-place vote three points, and a third-place vote one point. Here are the results:
Who will win the Eastern Conference finals?
- 1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 98 points
- 2. New York Knicks: 72 points
- 3. Orlando Magic: 21 points
- 4. Milwaukee Bucks: 7 points
- 5. Indiana Pacers: 3 points
The Cavaliers` initial momentum might be hampered by injuries to Darius Garland and Max Strus. However, given the long season ahead, a healthy Cleveland roster positions them as clear favorites for the conference title. The Knicks` financial flexibility, unlike the Cavaliers, could allow them to pursue a high-profile player before the trade deadline, potentially altering the playoff landscape. The Orlando Magic`s bold trade for Desmond Bane suggests a belief in their immediate contention, a premise that will be tested as the season unfolds.
Who will win the Western Conference finals?
- 1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 106 points
- 2. Denver Nuggets: 50 points
- 3. Houston Rockets: 35 points
- 4. Los Angeles Lakers/Minnesota Timberwolves: 7 points
- 5. Golden State Warriors: 2 points
Surprisingly, the Houston Rockets, despite a strong offseason that saw them acquire Kevin Durant, aren`t the favorites to challenge the reigning champions. The Thunder ran away with the votes in this summer forecast. The Denver Nuggets secured the second spot, primarily due to their intense seven-game series against the eventual champions in last season`s Western Conference semifinals. Their offseason moves, including trading Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson and adding Jonas Valanciunas, Bruce Brown, and Tim Hardaway Jr., aimed to deepen their roster.
However, continuity is a significant factor. The Thunder prioritized retaining their exceptionally talented core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. With 14 players returning from last season`s championship-winning 15-man roster, Oklahoma City is heavily favored to repeat as Western Conference champions.
Who will win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- 1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 101 points
- 2. Denver Nuggets: 36 points
- 3. Cleveland Cavaliers: 27 points
- 4. Houston Rockets: 21 points
- 5. New York Knicks: 11 points
According to our panel, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a high probability of ending the league`s streak of unique champions, poised for a repeat performance. Their young core`s natural development, complementing the 27-year-old reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, suggests they will be an even stronger team. The 2023 champion Denver Nuggets emerge as the primary challenger, having bolstered Nikola Jokic`s supporting cast after their hard-fought West semifinals series against OKC. The Thunder demonstrated last season that prior deep playoff experience isn`t essential for a championship, a path the Cavaliers hope to follow in the East, maintaining their core four despite a disappointing second-round exit after a 64-win season. The Houston Rockets, fueled by the addition of future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant to a team that has shown significant improvement in recent seasons, are now firmly in the championship conversation after years out of the first round.
