Which NBA teams are poised to exceed or fall short of expectations this upcoming season? My statistical projections offer some insights.
Last year, my model accurately highlighted the strengths of the Cleveland Cavaliers (projected second in the Eastern Conference) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (the highest overall projection). It also correctly identified the Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers as potentially more competitive than anticipated, while predicting lower outcomes for the Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns compared to conventional wisdom (though their actual performance was even worse, with both missing the play-in tournament entirely).
My recalibrated forecast achieved the second-lowest root mean squared error based on evaluations from the APBRmetrics forum, indicating high accuracy and a strong correlation with actual wins and losses.
Methodology Behind the Projections
My team projections are built upon player ratings derived from a blend of my SCHOENE statistical projections and Krishna Narsu`s luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) data from the past three seasons. For each team, I estimate games played by considering past injury absences over three years and current unavailabilities, then make subjective assessments of playing time distribution.
This process yields an expected total of wins under average health conditions, which can be compared to the `over/under` season win totals offered by ESPN BET. Beyond simply ranking teams from 1 to 15 within each conference, I aim to clarify the reasons why my projections may diverge from these betting lines.
Let`s dive into the analysis, beginning with the reigning champions. Following that, we`ll explore potential breakout teams in a wide-open Eastern Conference and those that might unexpectedly slide down the standings this season.
Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Wins: 59.2
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 62.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: Oklahoma City`s betting line of 62.5 wins is undeniably formidable. It stands as the highest such line since the 2017-18 NBA champion Warriors were set at 67.5 wins (they ultimately finished with 58). While the Thunder boast the highest projection in my model since those 2017-18 Warriors, achieving the 62.5 mark remains a monumental task.
2. Golden State Warriors
Projected Wins: 56.1
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 46.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: The Warriors might have the most surprising projection, nearly four wins clear of any team outside Oklahoma City. With Jimmy Butler III now fully integrated for a complete season (they achieved a 63-win pace with him last season), the Warriors also feature 11 players rated above league average, matching the Thunder for the most in the league.
Having Jimmy Butler III for a full season is expected to significantly boost Steph Curry (30), Al Horford (20), and the rest of the Warriors in the Western Conference.
3. Denver Nuggets
Projected Wins: 52.2
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 53.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: There`s minimal disagreement regarding the Nuggets, who are projected third in the Western Conference either way. The slight positive win differential might stem from market optimism that Denver`s new additions—Cameron Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas—will perform even better alongside three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
4. LA Clippers
Projected Wins: 49.7
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 47.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: A key factor is a favorable projection for Kawhi Leonard`s health, with 66 games anticipated. This aligns with his 68 games in 2023-24, exceeding his previous seasons with the Clippers. The team also benefits from no player projected for more than 200 minutes rating worse than minus-0.5 points per 100 possessions.
5. Houston Rockets
Projected Wins: 46.9
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 53.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: Even before Fred VanVleet`s ACL tear on September 22, Houston was projected below the betting line. Kevin Durant`s impact on winning, based on box score stats, has not been as significant since his trade to the Suns in 2023. VanVleet`s injury further exacerbated this gap, dropping Houston`s projection by nearly four wins, though their betting line has only shifted slightly.
6. Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Wins: 45.8
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 48.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: This is a recurring trend for the Lakers, whose betting line often benefits from their popularity, especially in Las Vegas. Since 2013-14, the Lakers have, on average, finished 5.7 wins below their total, the largest discrepancy for any team. While Luka Doncic playing at an MVP level in his first full season could help them reach the mark, the Lakers are by far the league`s most top-heavy team, with only four players projected above league average. Other teams with fewer than five such players (Nets, Jazz, Wizards) are all slated for the lottery.
7. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Wins: 44.6
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 40.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: Memphis begins from a stronger foundation than last season`s 48 wins. In terms of point differential, they ranked third in the West, behind the two conference finalists, which is a better forward-looking indicator. Despite losing starting guard Desmond Bane to Orlando, Memphis still has a reasonable chance to avoid the play-in. The team will need to closely monitor Ja Morant, who is currently week-to-week with a sprained left ankle suffered in practice.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Wins: 43.7
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 49.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: The Timberwolves were one of my model`s significant misses last season, winning 49 games against a projection of 42.7. This was partly due to favorable perimeter health. Nickeil Alexander-Walker`s departure means one of the young guards will need to step into a rotation role, and Terrence Shannon Jr., the most likely candidate, projects poorly. However, Minnesota fans have reason to believe their team is underrated after two consecutive conference finals appearances.
9. Dallas Mavericks
Projected Wins: 43.6
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 40.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: While the player fit in Dallas isn`t ideal, the Mavericks certainly possess ample talent, with eight players rating above league average, including Kyrie Irving (knee), whose return timeline is currently unknown. Dallas relies on D`Angelo Russell to anchor the point guard position until Irving returns, but this roster is likely underestimated due to Irving`s injury and the Luka Doncic trade.
The Mavericks` roster is not receiving enough credit and could perform better than expected this season.
10. Sacramento Kings
Projected Wins: 43.5
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 34.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: Similar to Dallas, Sacramento appears to have more talent than widely acknowledged. The Kings won 40 games last season with a positive point differential. While they dropped to a 36-win pace with Zach LaVine after the De`Aaron Fox trade, they`ve upgraded at point guard with Dennis Schroder. The ceiling might not be exceptionally high for Sacramento, but it`s improbable the Kings will be as far out of contention as their betting line suggests.
11. San Antonio Spurs
Projected Wins: 40.1
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 44.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: The optimism surrounding Victor Wembanyama`s potential emergence as a top-five player this season, despite a less aggressive projection, is understandable. We`ve seen similar breakthroughs for other transcendent prospects in their third year. However, the rest of the roster leaves much to be desired. Second overall pick Dylan Harper is unlikely to significantly contribute to wins as a rookie, and Stephon Castle`s Year 1 advanced stats didn`t match his Rookie of the Year reputation.
12. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected Wins: 35.8
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 33.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: Portland won 36 games in 2024-25 and improved in my projections by trading Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday. The market is right to be skeptical of Portland`s 23-18 second half, largely driven by exceptionally poor opponent 3-point shooting (34%, second lowest in the NBA), a factor that rarely sustains. Still, this betting line seems like an overcorrection for a team aiming for a play-in spot.
13. Phoenix Suns
Projected Wins: 34.7
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 31.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: While it`s logical that Phoenix won 36 games last season and then lost Kevin Durant, the Suns were likely due for some degree of bounce-back after underperforming their projections a season ago. Durant`s current value is also potentially overstated. It`s also important to remember that Phoenix will have no incentive to accumulate losses late in the season, as their draft pick has been swapped to the point of irrelevance.
14. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected Wins: 32.6
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 30.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: This is a remarkably low figure for a team with significant NBA talent. New Orleans ranked in the NBA`s top five for games lost to injury last season and should experience better health this time around, even with Dejounte Murray`s Achilles rupture sidelining him for much of the campaign. Like the Suns, the Pelicans gain no benefit from improving their draft pick, which was traded to the Hawks.
15. Utah Jazz
Projected Wins: 20.2
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 18.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: Teams with such low betting lines typically exceed them, including two of the bottom three teams from last season. With Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz possess two above-average starters capable of mitigating issues arising from their young backcourt.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Wins: 50.1
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 56.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: The Cavaliers are likely due for some regression to the mean after leaping from 48 to 64 wins last season. This partly relates to health, as Cleveland already has two starters (All-Star guard Darius Garland and wing Max Strus) sidelined to start the season, forcing coach Kenny Atkinson deeper into his perimeter rotation than last year. The Cavaliers remain a strong contender for the East`s top seed but perhaps with a slightly lower win total than in 2024-25.
Can the Cavs capitalize on a wide-open East this season?
2. Orlando Magic
Projected Wins: 49.9
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 51.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: If anything, my projections are arguably more bullish on the Magic, placing them just behind Cleveland for the best in the East. The minor discrepancy can likely be attributed to overlooking the schedule, a factor that is easily overemphasized but not explicitly included in these projections. Orlando also acquired Desmond Bane last summer, a move expected to contribute significantly to their success.
3. New York Knicks
Projected Wins: 47.2
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 53.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: The Knicks exceeded last season`s 45.4-win projection by 5.5 games, benefiting from strong in-season health. Among New York`s starting five, only Jalen Brunson missed as many as nine games due to injury or illness, a feat that may be difficult to replicate. I also anticipate fewer minutes for the Knicks` top players with Mike Brown replacing Tom Thibodeau as coach. I expect New York to finish somewhere between these two marks, likely around 50 wins.
4. Indiana Pacers
Projected Wins: 45.9
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 38.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: Although former Indiana center Myles Turner, now with the Bucks, will be challenging to replace, this projected win total feels remarkably low. The Pacers remained competitive last season even without Tyrese Haliburton, who will miss the 2025-26 campaign with a torn right Achilles. Indiana`s replacements at center, particularly stretch big man Jay Huff, rate better than conventional wisdom suggests. While I`m not confident Indiana can finish in the same standings spot as last season, I believe the Pacers have a strong chance of finishing above .500.
5. Boston Celtics
Projected Wins: 45.6
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 40.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: As with Indiana, there might be excessive focus on the players Boston lost and insufficient attention to those who remain. The Celtics still have eight players projected better than average—tied for eighth most in the league—including All-Star Jaylen Brown and statistical standout Derrick White. The caveat here is that Boston could make trades during the season to avoid the luxury tax and potentially aim for a lottery pick before Jayson Tatum, likely out for the season after rupturing his right Achilles tendon, returns.
6. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Wins: 44.5
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 42.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: One could simply state that Milwaukee has Giannis Antetokounmpo and leave it at that. The Bucks went 11-5 last season in games Antetokounmpo played without Damian Lillard, albeit against a weaker schedule. They`ve also upgraded at center from Brook Lopez to Myles Turner. Partially due to that success, my model is more optimistic about guards AJ Green, Kevin Porter Jr., and Ryan Rollins than conventional wisdom might suggest.
7. Atlanta Hawks
Projected Wins: 44.3
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 46.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: The hype for the Hawks might be getting a bit excessive; their offseason was undoubtedly positive but perhaps not transformative in the short term. While I`m personally more optimistic than the model about Atlanta`s chances of avoiding the play-in, I would still be surprised if they finish in the East`s top four.
8. Detroit Pistons
Projected Wins: 42.6
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 45.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: This is largely due to the loss of Malik Beasley, arguably Detroit`s second-best player last season after All-Star centerpiece Cade Cunningham. Replacements Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson do not rate nearly as effectively as Beasley, who finished second in the NBA in made 3-pointers last season. Relying more on young talent could lead to a short-term step back for the Pistons.
9. Toronto Raptors
Projected Wins: 40.7
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 38.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: The Raptors` recent moves have limited their upside but should result in a competitive team, assuming reasonable health. Toronto was in the top 10 for games missed due to injury or illness, including Brandon Ingram sitting out the remainder of the season after being acquired from New Orleans at the deadline. One quiet move my model favors is the addition of Sandro Mamukelashvili, who performed effectively last season with the Spurs.
10. Miami Heat
Projected Wins: 40.3
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 38.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: Our projections are not far apart here. The addition of Norman Powell should help Miami remain competitive, especially with Tyler Herro sidelined to start the season following surgery for a left foot impingement.
Even with Tyler Herro, left, sidelined to start the season, Miami should remain competitive in the East.
11. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Wins: 38.4
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 42.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: The optimism surrounding the Sixers is somewhat baffling; their roster appears weaker on paper with the loss of key frontcourt contributor Guerschon Yabusele. If Joel Embiid remains healthy and effective, Philadelphia might finish above .500. However, even the 1,440 minutes I`ve projected for Embiid feel optimistic; he last played that much in 2022-23 en route to being named MVP. Furthermore, fellow injury-prone player Paul George no longer rates as an elite player after last season`s performance.
12. Chicago Bulls
Projected Wins: 38.0
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 31.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: This appears to be a case of the market not paying close attention. Chicago has won either 39 or 40 games in each of the past three campaigns, and they posted a 17-10 record after the All-Star break last season without Zach LaVine. The Bulls have clearly indicated their preference for a play-in berth over a high lottery spot. While Chicago`s overall direction leaves much to be desired, the Bulls should remain competitive.
13. Charlotte Hornets
Projected Wins: 28.5
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 26.5
Why the Projection is Higher than the Betting Line: Things are unlikely to go as poorly as last season, when the Hornets finished 19-63 with the third-most games lost due to injury in the league. The addition of Collin Sexton will provide the Hornets with a go-to scorer when LaMelo Ball is on the bench or sidelined, and 2023 No. 2 pick Brandon Miller is expected to take a significant step forward in his development.
14. Brooklyn Nets
Projected Wins: 17.6
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 20.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: Given the number of rookies on the roster, I anticipated Brooklyn having the league`s lowest projection. The Nets also have only two players who rate above league average. Still, there`s enough talent with the additions of Haywood Highsmith, Terance Mann, and Michael Porter Jr. via salary dumps to keep Brooklyn competitive early in the season.
15. Washington Wizards
Projected Wins: 14.2
ESPN BET Over/Under Total: 20.5
Why the Projection is Lower than the Betting Line: Given how my model typically compresses expected standings to avoid large misses, this is a surprisingly low projection for the Wizards. In fact, it`s the worst I`ve calculated for a team since adopting this model in 2010. After trading away veterans at the deadline and again last summer, Washington lacks a single player who ranks in the league`s top 130.
