The upcoming NBA season promises fierce competition for the league`s most prestigious individual honors. Following Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s remarkable feat last season—being the first since LeBron James in 2015 to secure both Finals MVP and league MVP—the race for all major awards is expected to be incredibly close.
Top prospect Cooper Flagg, the highly-anticipated No. 1 draft pick, is a strong contender for Rookie of the Year. However, he faces significant competition within a deep rookie class, notably from Dylan Harper of the San Antonio Spurs, who could potentially bring the award to his franchise for an unprecedented third consecutive season.
Furthermore, the Defensive Player of the Year race will be a key storyline, especially with Victor Wembanyama, last season`s standout defensive player, returning to action after an injury prevented him from meeting the eligibility criteria.
Our panel of NBA experts, comprising reporters, editors, and analysts, contributed to this Summer Forecast by ranking their top three candidates for each of the six major NBA awards. Votes were allocated as five points for first place, three for second, and one for third. The collective results are presented below:
Predicted NBA MVP
- 1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 83 points
- 2. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: 62 points
- 3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 46 points
- T4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks/Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: 9 points
- 5. Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets: 8 points
Nikola Jokic, a three-time MVP, emerged as the overwhelming favorite in our preseason poll, signaling that voter fatigue may be waning, or perhaps voters were significantly swayed by his impressive playoff duel against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in 2025. He garnered nearly double the votes compared to Gilgeous-Alexander, who aims for a repeat MVP performance. Luka Doncic`s noticeable offseason fitness improvements also resonated with voters, securing him the second spot. While team success is a crucial factor in MVP voting, potentially explaining Gilgeous-Alexander`s third-place ranking despite leading the Thunder to a championship, the question remains if he and his young team have yet another gear to shift into.
Predicted NBA Rookie of the Year
- 1. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks: 121 points
- 2. Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs: 38 points
- 3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers: 25 points
- 4. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets: 18 points
- 5. Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz: 16 points
Cooper Flagg`s dominance in the Rookie of the Year voting was widely anticipated. Recognized as the top prospect in his class, Flagg brings NBA-ready skills and adaptability, and is expected to assume a vital role on a team with playoff aspirations and experienced players. This award often favors a blend of raw talent and favorable circumstances, a combination Flagg appears to possess upon entering the league.
Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe, who placed second and third respectively, are also projected to make significant impacts in their debut seasons. Their chances for the Rookie of the Year award largely depend on the roles they can establish within their teams` potentially crowded backcourts, and whether these roles provide a sufficient platform to showcase their talents. Currently, Flagg appears to have a clear advantage.
Predicted NBA Defensive Player of the Year
- 1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 95 points
- 2. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 31 points
- 3. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 20 points
- 4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 16 points
- 5. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 14 points
Last season, a deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder sidelined Spurs` prodigy Victor Wembanyama, preventing him from qualifying for the Defensive Player of the Year award due to missing the 65-game minimum. Despite playing only 46 games, the 21-year-old sensation led the league in blocks with 176, significantly outpacing Brook Lopez`s 148. He also contributed 1.1 steals per game, and the Spurs` defense registered a 115.4 defensive rating when he was on the court, compared to 121.4 when he was off.
Should Wembanyama participate in the requisite 65 games this season, he is widely expected to dominate the voting for the award, easily surpassing the likes of current DPOY Evan Mobley and other strong candidates like Chet Holmgren, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Rudy Gobert.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, a former DPOY recipient, placed eighth in last season`s voting, outranking four-time winner Rudy Gobert, who was 13th. It will be interesting to observe how Milwaukee`s offseason acquisition of Myles Turner might enable Antetokounmpo to elevate his disruptive defensive presence.
Predicted NBA Sixth Man of the Year
- 1. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 66 points
- 2. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves: 52 points
- 3. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks: 39 points
- 4. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics: 18 points
- 5. Ty Jerome, Memphis Grizzlies: 17 points
For Alex Caruso to win Sixth Man of the Year this season, voters would need to prioritize his subtle, impactful contributions over traditional scoring statistics.
The Sixth Man award typically honors players who provide an immediate offensive spark from the bench. Historically, only three award winners have averaged single-digit points, with none doing so in the last three decades. While Caruso`s profound impact in his debut season with Oklahoma City, especially in the playoffs, is undeniable, he averaged just 7.1 points in the regular season, securing only one third-place vote and finishing eighth in the previous Sixth Man balloting. Given his role on a talent-rich Thunder squad, a substantial increase in his scoring output during his ninth NBA season seems improbable.
Oklahoma City is expected to continue prudently managing Caruso`s playing time (he averaged 19.3 minutes in 54 games last season) to keep the 31-year-old fresh for another anticipated deep playoff run, while also fostering the development of young guards like Ajay Mitchell and Nikola Topic. However, there is historical precedent for a Sixth Man award winner to be recognized for dominant defense and contributions to a championship contender, exemplified by Philadelphia`s Bobby Jones in the award`s inaugural year, 1982-83.
While the 65-game minimum does not apply to the Sixth Man of the Year award, some high-ranking players in our panel`s forecast might become ineligible if they transition to starting roles, such as last season`s winner, Payton Pritchard, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, both of whom are strong candidates to start this upcoming season.
Predicted NBA Most Improved Player
- 1. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets: 59 points
- 2. Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers: 40 points
- 3. Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons: 18 points
- 4. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers: 14 points
- 5. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: 14 points
Amen Thompson was a clear choice for Most Improved Player, poised for a significant role on a Houston Rockets team with elevated expectations for the 2025-26 season. Entering his third NBA year, Thompson already showed considerable growth in his second season, despite not yet being a full-time starter. He has already earned All-Defensive team honors, establishing himself as one of the league`s premier on-ball defenders. His offensive game also displayed progress in the playoffs, with improved ball-handling and a more consistent jumper, increasing his scoring averages as the series progressed. This offensive development is expected to further accelerate this season, especially with Kevin Durant joining Houston, providing a far more potent offensive anchor than the team had previously.
Predicted NBA Coach of the Year
- 1. Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic: 48 points
- 2. Quin Snyder, Atlanta Hawks: 24 points
- 3. Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets: 22 points
- 4. Mike Brown, New York Knicks: 21 points
- 5. Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs: 16 points
Since his hiring in 2021, Jamahl Mosley has successfully guided the Orlando Magic`s young core to two consecutive playoff berths. Now, with a roster constructed for a deep playoff run in the competitive Eastern Conference, our panel anticipates Mosley will lead the Magic to a substantial improvement and earn Coach of the Year honors. Bolstered by key acquisitions like Desmond Bane`s crucial scoring and perimeter shooting, and Tyus Jones`s reliable point guard play, complementing Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando is positioned to exceed 50 wins for the first time since the 2010-11 season. Player health, particularly Jalen Suggs`s recovery from left knee surgery, will be paramount. Atlanta, a Southeast division rival that also made significant offseason roster changes, is another team projected to contend in the East under the leadership of coach Quin Snyder.
