Assembling a championship-caliber fantasy basketball squad begins with a stellar draft strategy. Success hinges on accurately identifying which players will exceed expectations and which might fall short. This season, who are the overlooked gems poised to outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP)? Which rising stars are set to elevate their game dramatically? Conversely, which highly-touted players pose the greatest risk of a production decline? Our panel of fantasy basketball specialists – André Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick, and Steve Alexander – share their insights on the top sleepers, breakouts, and busts for the upcoming 2025-26 NBA campaign.
Sleepers
Sleeper: An undervalued player projected to significantly exceed their Average Draft Position (ADP) in typical ESPN fantasy leagues.
Stephon Castle, PG, San Antonio Spurs
Karabell: Karabell highlights Stephon Castle, who truly shined over the final 25 games last season, securing Rookie of the Year accolades with averages of 19.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. While this impressive run occurred during De`Aaron Fox`s absence, Karabell believes both guards can form a potent backcourt. Concerns about promising rookie Dylan Harper are mitigated by the unlikelihood of him immediately taking on a significant role. Castle`s well-rounded contributions across multiple statistical categories give him a legitimate top-50 fantasy ceiling, even without elite shooting, making his current draft position outside the top 100 a low-risk, high-reward proposition.
Alex Sarr, C, Washington Wizards
Snellings: Snellings identifies Alex Sarr, the 2024 NBA Draft`s second overall pick, as a player with immense potential who progressed faster than anticipated in his rookie year. Having observed him in the Vegas Summer League, Snellings noted Sarr`s superior play, indicating he was already too advanced for that level of competition. Sarr is expected to be a consistent double-double threat, offering excellent shot-blocking and developing outside shooting, akin to a healthy, young Jaren Jackson Jr.
Kevin Porter Jr., SG, Milwaukee Bucks
McCormick: McCormick points to Kevin Porter Jr. With the Damian Lillard era concluded, Milwaukee`s guard rotation lacks significant depth, positioning Porter for a crucial on-ball role. Last season, he flourished when Lillard was sidelined, showcasing point guard-like assist rates and averaging 19.3 points in his four starts for the Bucks. Given Coach Doc Rivers` tendency to rely heavily on his starting unit, Porter is poised to receive substantial minutes and deliver strong fantasy numbers as the primary playmaker alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Trey Murphy III, SF, New Orleans Pelicans
Alexander: Alexander highlights Trey Murphy III, who is reportedly fully recovered from his torn labrum and expected to be ready for the Pelicans` season opener. Despite a history of injuries in New Orleans, playing only 57 and 53 games in the last two seasons, his current healthy status is a major positive. Last season, his per-36-minute statistics were exceptional: 21.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 3.1 three-pointers. With Zion Williamson`s persistent injury issues, Murphy is set for a breakout season if he can maintain his health.
Matas Buzelis, SF, Chicago Bulls
Moody: Moody tabs Matas Buzelis as a top fantasy sleeper. Entering his sophomore year, Buzelis is favored to secure the starting power forward position for the Bulls. As a 2024 first-round selection, he averaged 13.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game across 31 starts in his rookie campaign. His performance consistently improved, culminating in a strong finish to the season and impressive outings in two Summer League games. With his 6-foot-10 frame, Buzelis offers a versatile skill set including scoring, playmaking, and shot-blocking, making him a compelling fantasy prospect.
Breakouts
Breakout: A player widely anticipated to ascend into, or near, the top tier of their position, driven by a significant surge in production compared to prior seasons.
Brandon Miller, SF, Charlotte Hornets
McCormick: McCormick predicts a breakout for Brandon Miller. Despite potentially being overlooked by some fantasy managers due to a lack of recent hype, Miller demonstrated strong potential for a phenomenal sophomore season, showing improvement in all critical statistical areas. He was launching 11.4 three-pointers per 36 minutes and refined his passing and slashing abilities. Miller possesses significant upside that could be league-winning, making him McCormick`s preferred draft target in best ball and for the upcoming redraft season.
Cooper Flagg, SF, Dallas Mavericks
Alexander: Alexander boldly states that Cooper Flagg could become the player who helps Mavericks fans move past Luka Doncic and eventually forgive Nico Harrison for the trade. While not quite on the same level as his historical rookie predictions for Doncic and Victor Wembanyama, Alexander expects Flagg to have a sensational rookie year, especially considering he`s joining a team with injury-prone Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving, who is projected to miss a substantial portion of the season. Flagg could realistically achieve averages of 20 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, a steal, a block, and 1.5 three-pointers, making him a confident draft choice after the initial top-tier players are selected.
Josh Giddey, SG, Chicago Bulls
Snellings: Snellings notes that Josh Giddey initially appeared as a top-15 player in his early projections for points leagues. Although subsequent adjustments placed him closer to the top-40, Giddey still possesses the potential for a top-20 finish if the Bulls fully integrate him as a focal point. In his final 25 games last season, when Chicago elevated him to a primary role, Giddey averaged an impressive 20.2 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per contest. With an expected season-long feature, he could very well meet or exceed these outstanding statistics.
Jaylen Wells, SG, Memphis Grizzlies
Moody: Moody identifies Jaylen Wells as a prime breakout candidate. Despite being a 2024 second-round pick, Wells quickly secured a starting role after just five games, posting averages of 10.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.7 three-pointers in just 25.9 minutes per game. The offseason trade of Desmond Bane to the Magic creates a significant opportunity for Wells to expand his role. Bane`s departure frees up a 24.2% usage rate, 14.8 field goal attempts, and 30.2 minutes per game from last season, which Wells is well-positioned to absorb, making him a strong contender for a major statistical leap.
Kel`el Ware, C, Miami Heat
Karabell: Karabell champions Kel`el Ware as a breakout. While Ware`s overall rookie statistics might seem unremarkable, this is misleading as he saw limited action in the initial months. However, in his final 49 games, the imposing center averaged 11 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. His integration allowed Bam Adebayo to shift to power forward, where Adebayo thrived with averages over 20 points. Even if Ware isn`t a primary scorer, his strong defensive presence guarantees a solid fantasy baseline, and consistent playing time is assured. The most appealing aspect is his overlooked status in early ADP, often falling beyond the top 150, which Karabell finds absurd for a starting center capable of consistent double-doubles.
Busts
Bust: A player widely anticipated to be a reliable starter in standard ESPN fantasy leagues but who will ultimately underperform those expectations this season.
Paul George, SF, Philadelphia 76ers
Moody: Moody warns that Paul George, despite his continued prominent name in fantasy drafts, presents significant bust potential for 2025. Having recently undergone another knee procedure and playing fewer than 60 games in five of the past six seasons, the 35-year-old`s durability is a primary concern. His scoring dipped to a decade-low 16.2 points per game last season. Even if he`s healthy for training camp, expecting him to endure over 70 games is a gamble. Furthermore, sharing offensive duties with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey means George`s fantasy upside likely won`t justify his anticipated draft price.
Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
Karabell: Karabell cautions against drafting Ja Morant too high. While Morant delivers electrifying performances, his consistent inability to stay on the court has led him to routinely miss preseason expectations and high ADPs. After playing 67 games as a rookie, his availability has steadily declined, including missing almost the entire 2023-24 season and only playing 50 games last season. His 2024-25 statistics also showed a dip in scoring, rebounds, and assists, accompanied by an increase in turnovers. Despite his undeniable talent and the potential usage boost from Desmond Bane`s departure, Morant`s fantasy value is severely hampered if he cannot consistently play.
Ivica Zubac, C, Los Angeles Clippers
Alexander: Alexander flags Ivica Zubac as a potential bust. Last season, Zubac had a career year, nearly making the All-Star team with averages of 16.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, 0.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks, but this was fueled by a substantial 32.8 minutes per game. The Clippers` offseason additions of power forward John Collins and veteran center Brook Lopez will inevitably impact Zubac`s playing time. While Lopez might not usurp Zubac`s starting role, he`s unlikely to play less than 20 minutes per night. The presence of both Collins and Lopez will almost certainly reduce Zubac`s minutes and, consequently, his production. Alexander advises against drafting Zubac at a high cost, expecting a repeat of his previous stellar season.
Nic Claxton, C, Brooklyn Nets
McCormick: McCormick expresses caution regarding Nic Claxton. Although Claxton`s defensive contributions can occasionally be valuable in fantasy, his poor free-throw shooting and restricted offensive repertoire hinder his overall fantasy appeal. The Nets are expected to experiment with diverse lineups this season, not all of which will necessitate a conventional, rim-protecting center. McCormick suggests opting for a player like Alex Sarr, who offers greater upside, instead.
Fred VanVleet, PG, Houston Rockets
Snellings: Snellings identifies Fred VanVleet as a potential bust. VanVleet previously served as the Rockets` primary perimeter offensive driver, providing consistent veteran production when Jalen Green was inconsistent. However, with the acquisition of Kevin Durant, who will become the new perimeter focal point, and Alperen Sengun anchoring the interior offense, VanVleet will have less offensive responsibility. Furthermore, the Rockets` recent top-5 draft selections, Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard, are expected to command expanded roles this season, likely further diminishing VanVleet`s usage rate and overall fantasy value.
