Fantasy Basketball: Points League Draft Tiers

By André Snellings

In a recent fantasy basketball mock draft, the initial round saw no small forwards, only one power forward, and a single shooting guard selected, contrasting sharply with four centers and four point guards. Conversely, in the same draft, the fourth and eighth rounds were dominated by shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards.

This illustrates a recurring trend in recent seasons: point guards and big men are prioritized early in drafts, while talented wing players tend to be available later. Understanding these patterns is crucial for managers constructing their teams. This tier-based analysis aims to provide valuable guidance for your draft strategy.

One strategic application of this insight is to place a higher value on small forwards in the early rounds, recognizing them as a more limited commodity at the top of the draft board.

Another approach involves identifying positional clusters. For instance, among power forwards, Tier 3 presents the largest concentration of talent, whereas for small forwards, Tier 5 offers the most depth. For centers, Tiers 1 and 2 are robust, but Tier 3 features only one player. Leveraging this information can help you develop a clear roadmap for assembling a championship-contending team.

There are numerous paths to building a successful team, but all require securing strong contributors across your roster. Below is my player breakdown into tiers by position, based on my preseason projections.

While reviewing my breakdown is beneficial, you`ll gain the most by dedicating a few minutes to create your own player tiers based on your personal valuations. You`d be surprised how significantly this brief exercise can enhance your draft preparation and provide a competitive edge over other managers in your league.

Point Guard

Thoughts on Point Guards:

• More point guards populate the top two tiers than any other position, with reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading Tier 1.
• Luka Doncic maintains his top-tier status even after his trade to the Lakers, while Cade Cunningham ascended to Tier 1 with an outstanding performance last season.
• Tier 2 comprises guards who are integral franchise players, whereas Tier 3 features a mix of franchise cornerstones and All-Star secondary options.
• Tier 4 includes specialists like Dyson Daniels (steals) and Derrick White (3-pointers). Tier 5 is a blend of star-caliber players expected to miss the season`s start (Tyler Herro and Darius Garland) and younger players poised for larger roles in new environments (Jordan Poole and Kevin Porter Jr.).
• Rookie Egor Demin makes his appearance in Tier 8.

Shooting Guard

Thoughts on Shooting Guards:

• For the second consecutive season, Anthony Edwards stands alone as the only shooting guard in Tier 1.
• Tier 2 features two All-Stars, Devin Booker and Jaylen Brown, who are expected to take on larger roles this season due to the absence of their former co-stars, Kevin Durant (traded) and Jayson Tatum (injured). They are joined by Amen Thompson, who showcased superstar potential in his sophomore year and is set for an expanded team role in his third season.
• Tier 3 includes Donovan Mitchell, who might be in Tier 2 if not for reduced minutes tied to the Cavaliers` team success last season, along with three other promising young stars.
• Tier 4 consists of Jalen Green and Austin Reaves, both capable of strong scoring, but likely serving as second or third options on teams with other high-volume scorers.
• Reed Sheppard is an intriguing player in Tier 6. Despite limited rookie minutes, he`s projected for a significantly larger role with the Rockets this season following backcourt trades and injuries.
• Dylan Harper is the sole rookie shooting guard on this list, appearing in Tier 9.

Small Forward

Thoughts on Small Forwards:

• LeBron James is the exclusive small forward in Tier 1, a remarkable feat for a 40-year-old coming off a season where he ranked ninth in total fantasy points and sixth in average fantasy scoring.
• Jalen Williams, who finished 26th in the league for fantasy scoring average, is still young and improving, placing him in Tier 2.
• The top-ranked rookie, Cooper Flagg, joins an eclectic group in Tier 3 alongside Franz Wagner and DeMar DeRozan, both high-scoring wings. Josh Hart also resides in Tier 3 due to his versatile all-around game and consistent availability, keeping him among the league`s top fantasy-scoring wings.
• Tier 4 features both Miles and Mikal Bridges, plus Michael Porter Jr., who is anticipated to have a more significant role in Brooklyn than he did with the Nuggets. Deni Avdija began his breakout last season and could easily exceed his Tier 5 ranking this season.
• Brandon Ingram and particularly Kawhi Leonard would rank several tiers higher based purely on talent, but their injury histories position them lower on this list.
• Intriguing players in the upper tiers include Ausar Thompson in Tier 7, who might rebound after a sophomore slump affected by health issues, as well as rookie Ace Bailey and 2024 No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher in Tier 9.

Power Forward

Thoughts on Power Forwards:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo is a perennial Tier 1 power forward, joined this season by Anthony Davis, who now primarily plays power forward for a Mavericks team rich in big-man talent.
• Pascal Siakam is the sole player in Tier 2, with his offensive volume projected to increase due to Tyrese Haliburton`s absence.
• Tier 3 is crowded, featuring a diverse group of players ranging from Kevin Durant to Zion Williamson, who continues to strive for a full healthy season at a superstar level.
• Tiers 4 and 5 collectively list four players, three of whom are tall, agile athletes combining shot-blocking with perimeter scoring.
• No rookie power forwards made these tiers. However, Matas Buzelis in Tier 9, a promising rookie last season, could evolve into a significant fantasy contributor as a sophomore this year.

Center

Thoughts on Centers:

• Tiers 1 and 2 are rich with centers, including the seven listed, plus two power forwards with dual eligibility. Nikola Jokic remains the consensus top overall pick in fantasy basketball, while Victor Wembanyama continues to be one of the few players with the potential to challenge for that premier spot.
• Tier 2 welcomes new names, notably Ivica Zubac, who experienced a breakout season last year.
• Bam Adebayo is the sole occupant of Tier 3, though Tier 3 power forward Evan Mobley also holds center eligibility.
• Joel Embiid falls into Tier 4, but concerns about his availability could see him drop further. In an ESPN points mock draft, I selected Embiid in the sixth round, but positive updates on his health heading into the season have been scarce. Without better news soon, he might slide into lower tiers.
• Alex Sarr, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA draft, showed enough promise as a rookie and again in the Vegas Summer League to debut in Tier 5. Four of his draft classmates also made this list, with three in Tier 8 and one in Tier 9.

Final Thoughts

While there are many strategies to build a champion, one effective approach is to maximize your value at each position based on your draft slot. By tracking the types of talent available at different stages of the draft, you can significantly benefit your team`s results. You`ll be glad you did.