LaMelo Ball, point guard for the Charlotte Hornets, showcased impressive numbers last season, averaging a career-high 25.2 points, 7.4 assists, and 3.8 three-pointers per game. While these statistics are highly desirable in fantasy basketball, they tell only part of the story.
Context is crucial: numerous players surpassed Ball in key categories last season. Deni Avdija and Christian Braun scored more points, Bub Carrington and Scotty Pippen Jr. distributed more assists, and Gary Trent Jr. made more three-pointers. More significantly, 297 players participated in more NBA games than Ball, and 177 logged more minutes on the court.
This persistent issue of absence is unfortunately not new for Ball. Despite his undeniable talent and skill in running an offense, maintaining health and active participation has consistently been a challenge. After playing 51 games as a rookie and a surprising 75 in his second season, Ball has been limited to just 105 games over the past three seasons combined. His most recent campaign (2024-25) concluded in March following surgeries on both his ankle and wrist.
Ball, at 24 years old, is undoubtedly productive, but his availability is a major concern—105 games in three seasons is simply not enough. To put it in perspective, Indiana Pacers reserves T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin each appeared in 102 games in the last season alone, including playoffs!
Despite Ball`s preliminary average draft position (ADP) in the third or fourth round, the author advises against selecting him. This ADP is overly optimistic, especially when many more durable and productive players are available. While Ball is a great player, mere talent isn`t sufficient for fantasy sports success; consistent volume and availability are paramount, even in daily leagues where active management is possible.
Ball is not alone in his tendency to miss games. Here are other players to approach with caution in your fantasy draft, as their ADPs often suggest a reliability they have yet to demonstrate:
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Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP 28.4): Morant`s availability has been severely limited by both physical ailments and personal issues, resulting in just 59 games played over the past two seasons. He has never played more than 68 games in any single season. Furthermore, his scoring, rebounding, and assists all saw a decline last season compared to 2022-23. While Desmond Bane`s departure might open up more opportunities, a third-round ADP remains too optimistic considering all these factors. Morant is a highlight-reel talent, but not consistently available for enough nights.
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Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans (ADP 35.3): Williamson appeared in only a handful more games than an average fan last season. While he’s incredibly efficient in terms of scoring production per minute, fantasy teams require far more minutes than he typically provides. Two seasons ago, he played 70 games, but his overall production was significantly reduced. He’s not a consistent 30-point per game option, nor does he offer strong contributions in rebounding or shot-blocking, and his poor free-throw percentage can be detrimental. It`s advisable to fade him in at least the first five rounds. Similarly, LA Clippers SF Kawhi Leonard should be treated with caution, as his missed games and less-than-elite fantasy output don`t always align with his reputation.
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Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP 56.6): Embiid’s ADP almost invariably rises in October as the 76ers announce his presumed health, only for unforeseen issues to emerge. Last season, he played only 19 games, primarily due to a persistent left knee injury, and his production was notably lower when he did play. Even if he’s ready for opening day, the team will likely exercise extreme caution throughout the season. While acquiring an MVP-caliber player like Embiid in the sixth round, even for 50 games, might seem like a steal, it’s often safer to let another manager take on that risk. More durable centers like Myles Turner and Jalen Duren are available later in drafts and offer more reliable production.
Current Injury Concerns
Paul George has a history of durability issues and is recovering from summer knee surgery. -
We don`t know when Dallas Mavericks PG Kyrie Irving will return to the court, but it won`t be anytime soon. He tore his left ACL in March, and even if he manages to return by the All-Star break in February, he’s unlikely to play in every game for a playoff-bound team. While you might consider stashing Irving in an injured reserve slot, avoid investing a pick within the first 100 selections in standard redraft formats. Irving last played more than 60 games in a season during the 2018-19 campaign.
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New Orleans Pelicans PG Dejounte Murray suffered a right Achilles tear on New Year’s Eve, and initial reports suggest he might not debut until January of the upcoming season. Even upon his return, fantasy managers should not expect his typical statistical output immediately. Murray`s scoring dropped to 17.5 PPG in his first season with the Pelicans, though his assists and steals remain valuable. Exercise caution with expectations. While there’s a time to stash an injured player, most fantasy managers lose patience by Christmas, making the draft pick ultimately wasted. Conversely, players like Boston Celtics PF Jayson Tatum, Portland Trail Blazers PG Damian Lillard, and Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton, all of whom tore an Achilles during the NBA playoffs, are clear “fade” candidates on draft day, as they are likely to miss the entire upcoming season. Do not be misled by players expected to miss only the first few months; they almost always miss more time.
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Veteran PF Paul George had a challenging first season with the 76ers. Known for his durability issues, he also struggled to find comfort within his new team’s offensive system, playing passively and averaging only 13.9 field goal attempts and 16.2 points per game. His performance might not significantly improve even if the 76ers stay relatively healthy. George is currently recovering from summer knee surgery, which will likely delay his start to the season and push his ADP outside the top 100. However, if his ADP slips enough, investing in players like George—or Ball, Morant, Williamson, and Embiid—becomes a matter of value. At the right price, George could offer significant value.
Beyond Injuries: Other Risky Picks
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The notable advantage of New York Knicks SF Mikal Bridges is his exceptional durability; he genuinely plays every single night, which is a massive asset in fantasy. However, his overall fantasy numbers are not particularly special. Bridges has never been a significant contributor in rebounds or assists, and while he’s a solid defender, this doesn`t consistently translate into high steal or block numbers for fantasy. While consistent volume is appealing, especially in points formats, a Round 5 ADP remains overly generous. His former Villanova and current Knicks teammate Josh Hart provides considerably more rebounds and passes, making him a better value pick.
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New Atlanta Hawks PF Kristaps Porzingis has a history of durability concerns and could easily be listed among the injured players, though he is currently healthy. On the Hawks, with Trae Young`s high usage and emerging center Onyeka Okongwu handling rebounds, Porzingis is unlikely to approach 20 points or 7 rebounds per game. While his ADP is no longer in the top 50, he may still disappoint investors several rounds later.
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New Clippers PF John Collins showed promise last season with the Utah Jazz, averaging 19.2 points and 8.2 rebounds in 40 games. However, it’s difficult to foresee him replicating that production with his new team. The Clippers feature a usage-heavy point guard in James Harden, multiple scorers in Bradley Beal and Kawhi Leonard, and Ivica Zubac who led the NBA in total rebounds last season. Collins’ numbers might revert closer to his final season with the Hawks (13.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG), which would be acceptable only if drafted in the later rounds (beyond the first 10).
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New Trail Blazers PG Jrue Holiday has enjoyed a decorated career, earning defensive accolades and two NBA titles. However, he is no longer a top-tier fantasy option, even with an ADP falling after the 10th round. While the Blazers need to develop Scoot Henderson (the No. 3 pick in 2023), Holiday`s fantasy relevance is declining. If Portland trades Holiday to a contender, his numbers still aren`t expected to match his peak Milwaukee Bucks seasons. This echoes the narrative from a year ago regarding Mavericks SG Klay Thompson, who subsequently delivered his worst season since his rookie year.
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Mavericks SF/PF Cooper Flagg is expected to make an immediate fantasy impact, but he is an exception among rookies. Most first-year players fail to produce fantasy-relevant statistics in their debut season. Last season, San Antonio Spurs PG Stephon Castle won the Rookie of the Year award, but the majority of his fantasy production occurred after the All-Star break, and he did not finish in the top 100 of the Player Rater. Flagg is special and likely will. However, do not expect similar immediate fantasy relevance from other top draft picks like Spurs PG/SG Dylan Harper or 76ers SG VJ Edgecombe in their first year. While Flagg is likely to be overdrafted in most leagues, as matching his initial Duke stats (19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG) will be challenging, he should still be good enough to warrant a significant pick.
