Fantasy Basketball: Eric Karabell’s ‘Do Draft’ List

Last season, only three players achieved averages of at least 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. Fantasy basketball managers aiming to roster any of these elite talents—Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Domantas Sabonis—will likely need to spend a top-tier draft pick, possibly even the first overall.

Atlanta Hawks power forward Jalen Johnson showed potential to join this exclusive group, but a torn labrum in his left shoulder prematurely ended his season in January. Despite playing only 36 games, Johnson`s fourth NBA season saw him deliver impressive fantasy numbers.

While a `Do Not Draft` article focuses on players to avoid at their average draft position (ADP), this `Do Draft` list serves the opposite purpose: highlighting undervalued players worth targeting.

If I`m confident a player will significantly outperform their ADP, I`m willing to draft them a round or two earlier. Jalen Johnson was one such player I highlighted last season, and he certainly delivered. With improved health, he could achieve even better statistics this season.

Regardless of whether you`re playing in a standard points, rotisserie, or categories league, identifying draft-day value is crucial. For me, this often involves targeting durable veteran players, particularly centers and point guards, who contribute consistently across multiple statistical categories and might be overlooked by other managers.

Before his injury, Johnson, a forward known for his assist numbers, was a top-20 fantasy asset. His current fifth-round ADP presents excellent value, and he`s not the only player offering such an opportunity.

Other Players to Target Based on ADP

• James Harden, PG, LA Clippers (ADP: 20.2): Despite turning 36 this summer, Harden finished as the No. 3 player on the final player rater last season, showing no significant decline in production. He remains a foundational fantasy piece, making his current ADP an undervalued gem.

• Alperen Sengun, C, Houston Rockets (ADP: 26.9): Sengun has consistently approached 20 PPG, 10 RPG, and 5 APG in recent seasons. This could be the year he finally reaches those benchmarks. The arrival of Kevin Durant is unlikely to hinder his statistical output.

• Nikola Vucevic, C, Chicago Bulls (ADP: 32.3): Vucevic`s ADP has risen as managers recognize his reliable production. Approaching 35, he`s still poised for his 12th double-double season, complemented by efficient shooting.

• Evan Mobley, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers (ADP: 34.3): While he hasn`t yet reached the 20 PPG and 10 RPG marks, this season looks promising for Mobley to achieve them. The defensive anchor began incorporating three-pointers into his game last season and is expected to continue his development.

• Jaren Jackson Jr., C, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP: 46.7): Standing at 6-foot-10, Jackson isn`t a dominant rebounder, but his unique blend of steals, blocks, and three-pointers makes him an invaluable fantasy asset, a skill set he`s consistently provided for years.

• Austin Reaves, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (ADP: 54.2): Reaves significantly improved his scoring, assists, steals, and three-point shooting, with his production surging after Luka Doncic joined the team. Finishing as the No. 24 player overall, he`s an absolute steal at his current ADP.

• Julius Randle, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP: 70.2): Randle`s performance predictably dipped after leaving the Knicks. However, he`s now transitioned from an overrated fantasy asset to a considerably underrated one at this low ADP. He continues to offer strong assist numbers, has reduced turnovers, and improved his shooting, making him a significant bargain.

• Darius Garland, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (ADP: 79): Despite three other Cavaliers being top-50 picks, Garland`s ADP has fallen, likely due to his recovery from offseason toe surgery. While I typically avoid players expected to miss the season start, a high-scoring, efficient shooting point guard dropping this far is too valuable to pass up.

• Jakob Poeltl, C, Toronto Raptors (ADP: 86.6): In his ninth NBA season, Poeltl achieved career highs in scoring and rebounding. His increased steals and vastly improved free-throw percentage make him even more attractive. The center position offers considerable depth beyond the initial rounds.

• Brandon Miller, SF, Charlotte Hornets (ADP: 98.4): Miller`s second season was excellent, with averages of 21 PPG and 3.9 three-pointers per game before a wrist ligament tear ended it in January. He has the potential to be a top-50 player in his third year.

• Anfernee Simons, SG, Boston Celtics (ADP: 99.6): With his move to a short-handed Boston lineup, Simons should have no shortage of shot attempts. While a sudden surge in assists isn`t expected, securing 20 PPG and numerous three-pointers this late in the draft is an exceptional value.

Later-Round Choices to Target

• Mark Williams, C, Phoenix Suns (ADP: 103.5): Although Williams has yet to play more than 44 games in an NBA season, his production when healthy—scoring, rebounding, and efficient shooting—is undeniable. Taking a calculated risk on his significant statistical upside this late in the draft is justifiable.

• T.J. McConnell, PG, Indiana Pacers (ADP: 113): With Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) sidelined for the season, Indiana, much like Boston, will need unexpected players to step up. While McConnell`s statistical profile is modest, he`s poised for potential career highs in scoring, assists, and possibly minutes.

• Stephon Castle, PG, San Antonio Spurs (ADP: 114.9): The reigning Rookie of the Year might not develop into an elite outside shooter, but his strength lies in attacking the rim, offering significant upside in scoring and defensive categories. Don`t let rookie Dylan Harper`s presence deter you.

• Bobby Portis, PF, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP: 120.2): As a consistent veteran bench player known for scoring and rebounding, Portis, at 30, is expected to provide increased production for the Bucks this season, meeting their potential need for more offensive output.

• Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP: 130.2): Edey had a decent rookie season, and while his sophomore year might start late due to ankle surgery, a player with his double-double potential and shot-blocking upside is too valuable to be available this late in the draft.

• Dennis Schroder, PG, Sacramento Kings (ADP: 131.6): Consistently underestimated, Schroder moves to his ninth team this decade. Regardless of whether he starts for the Kings, his reliable scoring and assists make him a compelling late-round pick. It`s amusing to see fantasy managers overlook seasoned veterans like Schroder in favor of high-drafted rookies; recall how Minnesota`s Rob Dillingham or Houston`s Reed Sheppard performed.

• Kel`el Ware, C, Miami Heat (ADP: 132.7): As a rookie, Ware started 36 games, averaging a double-double alongside Bam Adebayo and demonstrating shot-blocking ability. While 15 PPG isn`t likely, finding a double-digit rebounder beyond the 10th round is rare and valuable.

• Kyle Kuzma, PF, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP: 134.9): Often overrated throughout his career, Kuzma`s ADP has now reached a point where he offers excellent value. We can expect around 16 PPG from him, which is perfectly acceptable for a pick this late in the draft.

• Matas Buzelis, SF, Chicago Bulls (ADP: 136.1): As a rookie, Buzelis posted averages of 13 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 1.1 BPG with efficient shooting. His playing time and production are expected to increase in his second year. Given his current draft position, there`s no need to reach for him around pick 100.

• Isaiah Collier, PG, Utah Jazz (ADP: 139.4): While not yet a strong shooter, Collier is expected to improve in his sophomore season. Any player with the potential to start at point guard for an NBA team is a worthwhile target in the late rounds or as a final pick.