Just five games into the new season, Erling Haaland is already demonstrating formidable form. The prolific Norwegian has scored six goals, appearing as menacing as he has at any point since his arrival in England three years ago. Tottenham remains the sole team to have prevented Haaland from scoring, though this was largely attributed to a lackluster team performance from Manchester City, rather than a failing by their star striker, who was unusually burdened with creative responsibilities.
Haaland is solidifying his reputation as arguably the game`s premier pure goal-scorer, a fact undoubtedly recognized by Pep Guardiola. Manchester City`s offensive strategy increasingly revolves around creating scoring opportunities specifically for him. In their initial four Premier League fixtures, the team registered 50 shots, with a significant 19 originating from Haaland. No other player reached double digits in attempts, and this 38% share of shots for their leading forward marks a substantial increase from last season`s league starts, where he accounted for just over 21% of chances.
Manchester City`s goal-scoring focus on Haaland becomes even clearer when examining their expected goals (xG). After four league matches, their total xG stands at 8.47, with an extraordinary 5.47 of that — nearly two-thirds — attributed solely to Haaland. While some of these figures might normalize as more games are played, this disproportionate distribution doesn`t seem to be merely a coincidence of the early schedule. With Kevin De Bruyne absent, Phil Foden striving to regain his best form, and many other attackers yet to fully realize their potential, City`s reliance on their primary striker is currently more acute than ever.
Countering this formidable scoring machine is, predictably, an equally resolute defense. Arsenal`s backline embodies such resilience, especially with the imminent return of William Saliba from an ankle injury sustained before the international break. Largely, Arsenal`s defenders and the midfielders shielding them have proven highly effective in containing Haaland and the rest of Manchester City`s attack.
Excluding the chaotic second half of last season`s 2-2 draw at the Etihad – where Arsenal almost held onto a lead despite Leandro Trossard`s first-half red card – Haaland has registered only six shots in three and a half matches against the Gunners, with just two on target. While he scored on both of those on-target attempts, a crucial element of Arsenal`s five-game unbeaten streak against their title rivals has been their ability to prevent Haaland from exhibiting his usual devastating form.
“You need to execute many things perfectly against a player who requires minimal space, time, or specific situations to create significant scoring opportunities, particularly near the penalty area.”
“Sometimes, stopping the supply is the most effective approach, and we must replicate that.”
— Mikel Arteta (CBS Sports pre-match press conference)
Arteta`s assessment of Arsenal`s successful containment strategy holds true. In his initial two encounters with the team whose title aspirations he severely impacted, Haaland recorded 36 and 35 touches. However, over the past two seasons, this average has plummeted to just 19 touches per game. Notably, during a 5-1 defeat at the Emirates last season, his final touch was the equalizer scored in the 55th minute. With defenders like Gabriel and Saliba thriving in physical duels, Arsenal demonstrates no fear of City`s formidable forward; in fact, they seem almost eager to challenge him.
Despite Haaland`s increased lethality this season, Arsenal has simultaneously enhanced its defensive prowess. Following a somewhat challenging start against Manchester United, Arteta`s squad has adopted an impenetrable, `lockdown` approach off the ball. Three of their last four adversaries would find it as difficult to breach Fort Knox as they would to force David Raya into an open-play save. While questions persist about their offensive threat beyond set pieces, their defensive solidity is undeniable; Liverpool`s two shots around the hour mark at Anfield represent the only open-play attempts conceded in their last four matches. Notably, the only goal Arsenal has allowed all season remains Dominik Szoboszlai`s spectacular free-kick.
Arsenal`s expected goals against (xGA) from open play in their last four fixtures are remarkably low: 0.13 versus Athletic Club, 0.06 against Nottingham Forest, 0.33 versus Liverpool, and 0.07 against Leeds. Labeling this a `lockdown` feels like an understatement; it`s akin to NBA defensive stars Victor Wembanyama and Bam Adebayo facing a junior varsity squad. Even though Arteta constantly strives for `more,` he must concede that this defensive strength forms `a very big foundation to achieve what we want.`
This defensive excellence is even more remarkable considering that nearly three of these stellar performances occurred without William Saliba, who is typically the lynchpin of their defense in possession and crucial for covering vast areas left open. In Saliba`s absence, Cristhian Mosquera, a $17.5 million signing from Valencia, has shone. The 21-year-old was highly regarded at his previous club for his eagerness to learn and his formidable strength in duels — qualities that have enabled his rapid adaptation to the Premier League.
Arteta clarified why Arsenal`s backline has been so robust with Mosquera: `Firstly, because he`s a very talented player. I believe credit is due to the scouting department and Andrea Berta, our new sporting director, for identifying and securing him. Once again, we`ve conceded no goals, and as a young player, he`s incredibly focused, determined, and clear about his desire to join us and earn his spot. His early performances in that role are truly impressive.`
Mosquera`s excellent form also underscores the effectiveness of Arsenal`s tactical system. The team`s often deliberate ball progression ensures that should possession be lost, the defense is well-positioned to immediately neutralize any threat. While this cautious approach hasn`t always garnered universal praise for Arteta, consider the alternative: a scenario where Haaland consistently exploits the vulnerabilities of a team, much like he has against Manchester United, even when they deploy three center-backs.
Arsenal`s system consistently delivers results in high-stakes matches. It effectively neutralizes even the most potent strikers and continues to function flawlessly, even without key defensive components. While Haaland may be performing at his absolute peak, it seems Arsenal`s defense is also at its zenith. The past two years of evidence strongly indicate that if this defensive solidity persists on Sunday afternoon, Manchester City will face an immense challenge to secure a victory.
