Just a few days into the official start of free agency negotiations, and a week after the draft concluded, the NBA has experienced its characteristic whirlwind of activity. We`ve witnessed enormous contracts, unexpected trades, a groundbreaking new deal, and significant drama surrounding league stars.
To help make sense of this chaotic period, let`s identify the primary winners and losers of the summer thus far. It`s worth noting that the offseason is long, and these initial designations are subject to change, as major transactions have historically occurred later in the fall (like the trades involving Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, and Karl-Anthony Towns).
For the moment, here are the teams, trends, and transactions that stand out the most. We`ll begin with what appears to be the most obvious winner of the 2025 offseason.
Winner: Houston Rockets
Even without further moves, Houston would have been declared an offseason winner simply by virtue of the Kevin Durant trade. That`s how overwhelmingly positive the Durant deal was for the Rockets, acquiring a perfect fit to address their most significant weakness without giving up any of their top young players or draft picks in return.
However, the Rockets did not stop after adding Durant. They also signed Dorian Finney-Smith to a four-year, $53 million contract, brought in Clint Capela on a three-year, $21.5 million pact, restructured Fred VanVleet`s contract to be more manageable, extended Jabari Smith Jr. on reasonable terms, and re-signed Jae`Sean Tate, Aaron Holiday, and Jeff Green to round out the roster.
The cumulative effect of all this activity is a deep, adaptable roster capable of defeating opponents in numerous ways: through defense, rebounding, size, physicality, youth, experience, and Durant`s unparalleled scoring talent. The Rockets are now set to challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder for the unofficial title of the league`s deepest team.
More importantly, the Rockets will challenge the Thunder for a more official title, as Houston now looks like the second-best team in the Western Conference – and therefore the greatest threat to Oklahoma City`s chance at becoming the first repeat champion since the Durant-led Warriors in 2017 and 2018.
This is not a flawless roster. Houston will be heavily dependent on VanVleet, who is now in his 30s and likely past his prime, due to a lack of significant backcourt depth (a second-year leap from No. 3 pick Reed Sheppard, who averaged just 4.4 points in 12.6 minutes per game as a rookie, would be a crucial development). The frontcourt rotation could also become complicated if talented players feel they aren`t receiving sufficient minutes, especially with Capela joining Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams; Houston might be leaning too heavily into its effective-in-small-doses two-center configurations.
But these are minor concerns for an otherwise formidable team. The Rockets skillfully managed their salary cap, replaced Dillon Brooks with Finney-Smith (who isn`t as strong as a point-of-attack defender as Brooks, though this is mitigated by the presence of Amen Thompson and Tari Eason), and upgraded from the inefficient Jalen Green to Durant, one of the most efficient perimeter scorers in NBA history. This is how you define winning the offseason.
Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
From the moment the Lakers acquired Luka Doncic in a surprising trade, they had an immediate and desperate need for a center. They had lost their previous starter, Anthony Davis, in the Doncic deal, and Doncic`s playing style meshes perfectly with a dynamic pick-and-roll partner, as evidenced by Daniel Gafford`s success and Dereck Lively II`s rookie impact alongside Doncic in Dallas.
So it was no surprise that the Lakers quickly agreed in principle to trade for a young, athletic center immediately after acquiring Doncic. However, they had to rescind the Mark Williams deal due to a failed physical. This left the Lakers relying on the players already on their roster. Jaxson Hayes started four playoff games but clearly did not earn coach JJ Redick`s trust, playing single-digit minutes in all four before being benched as Redick opted for a small-ball approach for the entirety of the Lakers` final loss of the season.
At the very least, following the Lakers` disappointing playoff flameout, their top offseason priority seemed straightforward. And yet, a few days into the free agency rush, all of their primary targets at center signed elsewhere, leaving them with Deandre Ayton, a surprise addition to the market after a buyout agreement with the Portland Trail Blazers.
Ayton does not appear to be an ideal short-term solution for a team aiming for a championship, nor is he a natural long-term fit alongside Doncic. The 2018 No. 1 pick (selected two spots ahead of Doncic, ironically) is neither a primary rim runner nor a floor spacer, and his peak performance occurred half a decade ago. Despite consistently impressive box score statistics, the leading public advanced metrics generally rate Ayton as a below-average overall player.
Furthermore, Ayton`s two-year contract with a player option offers limited upside for the team. If he plays well in Year 1, he will likely opt out, whereas if he struggles or fails to impress Redick, he will remain on the team`s salary books for a second season.
This is a risky position for the Lakers, who are simultaneously trying to manage LeBron James` potential dissatisfaction and convince Luka Doncic to sign a long-term extension later this summer. Currently, the roster composition does little to compel his signature. The Lakers have an unbalanced rotation with an abundance of power forwards (Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, Jarred Vanderbilt, and of course, James) but no reliable centers, and their only other significant move besides signing Ayton was replacing Finney-Smith with Jake LaRavia.
Winner: Big-man depth
A key reason the Lakers` search for a center went so poorly, so quickly, is that all the available good ones were snapped up rapidly. One of the most significant (and literal) themes of the first week of the offseason is teams doubling down on big men, even if they already seem well-covered at the position.
The Houston Rockets signed Capela despite already having Sengun and Adams. The San Antonio Spurs added Luke Kornet even though they already had Victor Wembanyama. The Denver Nuggets traded for Jonas Valanciunas to give Nikola Jokic his best backup in years. The LA Clippers acquired Brook Lopez to back up Ivica Zubac. The New York Knicks signed Guerschon Yabusele to play with Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The New Orleans Pelicans signed Kevon Looney to split time with promising youngster Yves Missi. The Toronto Raptors extended Jakob Poeltl and signed Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Milwaukee Bucks signed Myles Turner and Jericho Sims, in addition to extending Bobby Portis.
The desire for lineups featuring two bigs was also apparent on draft night, as two non-playoff teams in the West established long-term pairings. The Portland Trail Blazers selected 7-foot-1 project Yang Hansen to pair with 7-foot-2 second-year center Donovan Clingan, while the Phoenix Suns, in quick succession, traded for veteran Mark Williams and drafted Khaman Maluach, the first center selected.
Other contenders prioritized retaining their established rotations of big men. The Minnesota Timberwolves re-signed Naz Reid and Julius Randle for a combined $225 million; adding in Rudy Gobert, whose extension takes effect this season, the Timberwolves have committed $334.5 million to their bigs, even after trading Towns. And the Memphis Grizzlies kept Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama on extensions worth a combined $292.5 million.
Furthermore, after the Thunder successfully started Isaiah Hartenstein (a free agent addition last summer) and Chet Holmgren together en route to a championship, they extended third big Jaylin Williams this week. And the Dallas Mavericks have consistently utilized large lineups since trading for Anthony Davis; until Kyrie Irving returns from injury, their five best players are all naturally power forwards or centers: Davis, the newly extended Gafford, Lively, P.J. Washington, and No. 1 draft pick Cooper Flagg.
This league-wide trend could lead to some interesting stylistic contrasts for the few teams not following suit, such as the Lakers and Golden State Warriors. But taken together, these transactions make one point abundantly clear: After roughly a decade of exploring smaller lineups, traditional big men are once again highly fashionable – and this applies not just to MVP winners like Jokic and Joel Embiid, but players of all types and skill levels, provided they possess the necessary size.
Loser: Opponents trying to score inside against the Spurs
Here`s a revealing statistic that highlights the defensive strength of one of the new big man pairings. According to GeniusIQ tracking over the past two seasons, among 166 players who have defended at least 300 shot attempts within 5 feet, Luke Kornet (52.2%) ranks fifth and Victor Wembanyama (52.3%) ranks sixth in allowing the lowest opponent field goal percentage.
The Spurs recognized Kornet`s defensive value, signing the veteran center to a significant four-year, $41 million deal. He will serve as an excellent backup behind Wembanyama. However, their ability to play together should not be overlooked; lineups featuring both Wemby and Kornet shouldn`t feel overly crowded offensively since Wembanyama often operates on the perimeter anyway, and they could form a truly devastating defensive combination.
Winner: Denver Nuggets
For several years, Denver`s starting lineup has been one of the premier units in the sport. Last season was no exception, even with Christian Braun stepping in for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope after his departure in free agency. The Nuggets` starters posted strong net ratings in both the regular season and playoffs, maintaining effectiveness even against the formidable Thunder in the second round.
Yet that success did not prevent the first significant alteration to Denver`s long-standing core, which had been in place since before their title run in 2022-23. The Nuggets traded Michael Porter Jr. and an unprotected 2032 first-round pick for Cam Johnson, an ideal fit in Denver`s offensive system. Johnson is a reliable high-volume 3-point shooter (39% career) and, while lacking Porter`s size, is more dynamic creating off the dribble.
Crucially, the salary savings from this swap – because Porter will earn approximately $17 million more than Johnson next season – provided the Nuggets with the necessary flexibility for further additions.
First, they re-signed Bruce Brown Jr., another valuable player known to thrive alongside Jokic. Then they traded Dario Saric, who played just 16 games (none in the playoffs) for Denver after a questionable free agent signing last summer, for Jonas Valanciunas, a highly qualified backup center who averaged a robust 20 points and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes last season, consistent with his career peak production. This move ensures Denver will no longer experience significant drops in production when Jokic is off the court, replacing less effective options like Zeke Nnaji and the aging DeAndre Jordan.
Finally, the Nuggets signed Tim Hardaway Jr., a willing and capable shooter (36% career from 3), who along with Johnson should help improve the Nuggets` 30th-ranked 3-point attempt rate.
In essence, the Nuggets lost two players from last season`s playoff rotation, Porter and Russell Westbrook. But they added four players capable of contributing to the rotation. Denver should now be able to comfortably play nine or ten deep, with a projected starting five potentially including Brown, Hardaway, and Valanciunas, plus the possibility of young players like Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther making significant strides.
The Nuggets came much closer than any other team in the West to dethroning the Thunder this spring. And now their roster for the 2025-26 season looks considerably better than the 2024-25 version.
Loser: Milwaukee Bucks
To be fair to the Milwaukee Bucks, this categorization reflects less on their specific moves this week and more on a disastrous two-year stretch for the organization. That challenging period began with the hiring of short-tenured coach Adrian Griffin and the trade for Damian Lillard, and culminated this week with waiving Lillard and stretching the remaining $113 million on his contract.
The Bucks were in an unenviable position as soon as Lillard suffered an Achilles injury in April. They possess very few assets beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo: no young talent, limited control of their future draft picks, and minimal financial flexibility to upgrade the roster around their two-time MVP. They did manage to create some short-term financial flexibility by stretching Lillard`s deal and trading Pat Connaughton, which allowed them to acquire center Myles Turner from the Indiana Pacers – but this came at an extreme long-term cost.
Lillard`s stretched contract will now account for $22.5 million against the Bucks` salary cap for each of the next five seasons. For context, $22.5 million is approximately what Cam Johnson will earn in his upcoming seasons (it`s also roughly what Kyle Kuzma will earn, meaning the Bucks essentially have two significant dead cap hits). This long-term financial burden might be justifiable if the Bucks were legitimate contenders for the 2025-26 title.
However, even with some hope for other fringe contenders in the Eastern Conference and Turner serving as a younger replacement for Brook Lopez alongside Antetokounmpo, it`s difficult to envision a team starting Kevin Porter Jr. at point guard, with as weak a perimeter defense as Milwaukee currently has, realistically competing for a championship.
Milwaukee`s front office deserves credit for its aggressive approach aimed at maximizing Antetokounmpo`s prime, dating back to the trade that brought Jrue Holiday and, subsequently, a title to town. But boldness alone will not deliver more playoff wins to Milwaukee; that requires high-quality NBA players. And even after this week`s surprising transactions, the Bucks appear to lack sufficient talent.
Winner: Atlanta Hawks
It is challenging for teams primarily led by a smaller point guard to advance deep into the playoffs, largely because that offensive catalyst will inevitably be targeted defensively. The most effective strategy to counteract this inherent weakness is the model used by the Indiana Pacers, who surrounded Tyrese Haliburton with high-caliber defenders at every other position on their way to Game 7 of the Finals.
The Hawks are making a clear effort to replicate this approach, having spent the past two summers constructing a more formidable roster around their star point guard, Trae Young. This offseason, they made an opportunistic trade for Kristaps Porzingis, an injury risk but an undeniable ceiling-raiser, who was available because of the Boston Celtics` desire to offload salaries. (In the process, the Hawks also shed Terance Mann`s negative contract – which they arguably should not have acquired at the trade deadline – at the cost of a late first-round pick.) The Hawks emerged victorious in the pursuit of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and they replaced Caris LeVert, who departed for Detroit, with Luke Kennard, the active leader in career 3-point percentage (43.8%).
Atlanta`s current rotation now pairs Young with Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Dyson Daniels, rangy and athletic wings like Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, and 2024 first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, and capable defensive centers in Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu. While the Hawks have not finished a season with a defensive ranking better than 18th during Young`s career, as long as they minimize minutes with a Young-Kennard backcourt pairing, they have a legitimate chance to be above average defensively this season.
And none of these transactions represent Atlanta`s most significant success of the offseason. That honor goes to the absolute heist the Hawks pulled off on draft night, when they demanded and received an exorbitant price from the New Orleans Pelicans to move up just 10 spots, from No. 23 to 13. The Pelicans paid it! And now the Hawks own the unprotected rights to the better pick between the Pelicans and Bucks next summer.
Given Milwaukee`s continued uncertainty and New Orleans` weak standing in a highly competitive Western Conference, that future pick is heavily favored to land in the lottery. For reference, on standard draft value charts, the difference between pick 13 and 23 is roughly equivalent to the 28th pick, meaning the Hawks will almost certainly win this trade significantly.
Beyond simply aiming for their annual appearance in the play-in tournament, the improved Hawks, operating in a wide-open Eastern Conference, could realistically challenge for a top-four seed next season. Losing Larry Nance Jr. (a solid bench upgrade for Cleveland) is the only minor negative point against an otherwise outstanding summer for Atlanta.
Loser: New Orleans Pelicans
If the Atlanta Hawks are winners primarily due to their draft-night transaction, the team they took advantage of, New Orleans, must be placed in the losers` column. This was a truly puzzling decision from a new front office, led by Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, that seemed to profoundly misunderstand the team`s current position and the composition of its roster.
The Pelicans finished 14th in the Western Conference last season. While improved health in 2025-26 will almost certainly lead to a better record than 21-61, it is difficult to identify many teams they will surpass in the standings. Even if Phoenix declines, teams like the 13th-place Spurs, 12th-place Trail Blazers, and 10th-place Mavericks all made improvements this summer. New Orleans would need to pass several teams just to reach the lower end of the play-in tournament.
If the Pelicans fail to make the playoffs, they will send a lottery pick to Atlanta. They accepted this risk to draft Derik Queen, a prospect who might develop into a star but who appears to be a poor fit next to incumbent star Zion Williamson. Both players are `tweener` bigs who flash similar strengths and weaknesses. Can lineups featuring both Williamson and Queen provide adequate floor spacing? Can they offer effective defense on the other end?
One debatable draft-night trade wouldn`t necessarily be enough to criticize the Pelicans so heavily, but the new front office`s other moves also do not appear to follow a cohesive strategy.
New Orleans also traded CJ McCollum and Kelly Olynyk for Jordan Poole and Saddiq Bey (along with a second-round pick swap with Washington). Bey could potentially help following his ACL tear, but the primary consequence was effectively choosing Poole over McCollum. While Poole is eight years younger, most advanced statistics rate the two players similarly in overall impact, and Poole is signed for an additional year at a high salary ($34 million).
And the Pelicans` key free agent signing is Kevon Looney, whose effectiveness outside of Golden State`s unique system remains a significant question mark. It is particularly challenging to envision how this offense will generate proper spacing with multiple non-shooters potentially sharing the floor; Looney, Williamson, Queen, and starting center Yves Missi have combined for a remarkably low number of made 3-pointers across their many collective career games (counting college statistics for Queen and NBA statistics for the other three).
