Cooper Flagg: Projections for His Career with the Dallas Mavericks

Cooper Flagg, heralded by many as the most compelling American basketball talent since LeBron James, was destined for significant attention irrespective of where he was drafted. His arrival at the Dallas Mavericks, facilitated by an extraordinary stroke of lottery luck after a season marked by surprising transformations, only intensified the fascination surrounding him. This unique scenario positions Flagg as a top draft pick who can immediately contribute to a competitive team in his debut season.

As Mavericks General Manager Nico Harrison remarked at Flagg`s July introductory press conference, “Our focus is on winning now, and while he bolsters that, he also embodies the franchise`s long-term vision.” The questions now shift to the Mavericks` potential success in Flagg`s rookie year and beyond with their veteran core of potential future Hall of Famers. How quickly will he achieve All-Star status? Do MVP awards and NBA championships lie ahead in Flagg`s career? Our assembled panel of ESPN writers, reporters, editors, and analysts provides their predictions on these and other key questions as Flagg gears up for his first NBA training camp.

Where Will Flagg and the Mavericks Finish in 2025-26?

Here’s a challenging trivia question: Who was the last No. 1 overall pick to participate in the playoffs during their rookie season? The answer is a tie: Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons achieved this feat with the 2017-18 Philadelphia 76ers. “The Process” finally yielded playoff success during Simmons` redshirt rookie season, largely due to Joel Embiid playing more than double the games he had across his first three years combined.

Indeed, a distinct set of circumstances is necessary for a top draft pick to gain early playoff exposure. Fortunately, Flagg joins the Mavericks – a franchise that, only months removed from an NBA Finals appearance, controversially traded a perennial MVP candidate in his prime (a move the GM declared as “win-now”), then unexpectedly landed the top pick with just 1.8% lottery odds. This certainly qualifies as unique.

Flagg is anticipated to be an immediate starter, yet he won`t be burdened with carrying the team as a rookie. He’ll be surrounded by accomplished veterans, notably former No. 1 pick and 10-time All-Star Anthony Davis, who was a cornerstone of the package received for Luka Doncic. The most significant determinant of the Mavs` playoff standing, or lack thereof, could be the influence of another former top pick and future Hall of Famer: Kyrie Irving. When will he return from his torn left ACL? If he does return this season, can he regain his All-Star form for a team that desperately needs his offensive creativity?

How Many Playoff Series Will Flagg, Anthony Davis, and Kyrie Irving Win Together in Dallas?

Nearly two-thirds of our panelists project that Flagg and the Mavericks will win two or fewer playoff series with their current core, including Flagg, Davis, and Irving. Conversely, about 15% of our experts offered a higher estimate, believing this core could secure at least four playoff series victories.

Considering Irving`s ongoing rehabilitation from a torn ACL suffered in March, coupled with Davis and Irving being 33 and 32 years old respectively, the more conservative estimate seems logically grounded. From an age perspective, these veterans are likely to soon depart their physical primes.

The Mavericks` championship window is open now. However, Irving will likely require time to return to peak form once he is back on the court. Similarly, despite his exceptional talent, Flagg is still a rookie—a phase where even the most polished players often face initial struggles or encounter a “rookie wall.” Of course, their collective journey isn`t limited to this season alone. But the sooner the Mavs can secure a series victory with this core, and the sooner they can maintain sufficient health to field all three stars together, the better their chances of exceeding the panel`s predictions.

When Will Cooper Flagg Make His First All-Star Appearance?

As our panel forecasts, it`s highly improbable that Flagg will be selected as an All-Star in his rookie season. Blake Griffin is the sole rookie All-Star in the past two decades, benefiting from a “redshirt” year in the NBA, as he sat out his first season due to left knee surgery. Furthermore, the format of next year`s All-Star rosters remains uncertain due to potential changes. If the league adopts a USA vs. World approach, Flagg could face even stiffer competition within the deep American talent pool.

However, second-year All-Stars are a more common occurrence, with eight such players emerging in the last eight years: Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, LaMelo Ball, Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Ben Simmons, and Joel Embiid. A substantial number of star-level players reach that tier by their third year, leading our panel to be confident that Flagg will, at the very least, fall into this category.

How Many MVP Awards Will Cooper Flagg Win?

First, let`s address the slim possibility of Flagg becoming the first American to break the current seven-year streak of international-born players winning the NBA MVP award. It`s unlikely. American stars such as Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum, and Jalen Brunson are currently better positioned to achieve that feat.

However, this is not to suggest that Flagg won`t eventually win an MVP award.

It is worth noting that sources at the NBA Summer League identified a few minor areas of deficiency in Flagg`s game that he will need to refine over his initial years in the league to reach his projected elite level. Beyond that, several factors beyond his direct control will influence his MVP chances, including overall team success, prevailing media narratives, and the performance of his NBA peers. Flagg`s profile as the most promising American No. 1 pick since LeBron James, combined with his versatile all-around game, will undeniably capture the consistent attention of MVP voters.

His two-way prowess and aesthetically pleasing style of play make him a contender for multiple MVP awards over a long career. Nevertheless, various external factors complicate the potential picture. It’s important to remember that former Mavericks franchise icon Luka Doncic is still seeking his first MVP, despite a career many expected to yield multiple such accolades.

How Many NBA Titles Will Cooper Flagg Win?

Winning an NBA title is challenging, even for a No. 1 overall pick. Flagg is the 41st top pick in the draft lottery era, and only 10 of the first 40 (25%) have secured championships. While this total may increase as younger No. 1 picks mature—the most recent No. 1 pick to win a title was Andrew Wiggins, drafted first in 2014—historical trends suggest the odds are stacked against Flagg ever winning a championship. The only No. 1 picks in this era with multiple titles are Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Shaquille O`Neal, and David Robinson.

However, a couple of factors favor Flagg more than the average No. 1 pick. He enters the NBA with a stronger projection than most top prospects, which significantly impacts postseason outcomes: among 15 No. 1 picks in the lottery era with multiple All-NBA selections in their careers, seven (47%) have won titles, with potential for more if Karl-Anthony Towns or Anthony Edwards eventually lift the trophy.

The Mavericks also possess considerably more talent than the rebuilding franchises that typically select first in the draft. Most No. 1 picks require assistance from other No. 1 picks to claim titles: Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, and Dwight Howard, for instance, all won alongside James, while David Robinson and Glenn Robinson triumphed alongside Duncan.

This might be the most crucial championship-worthy context for Flagg as his career commences: he will soon share the court with Davis and Irving, two prior No. 1 picks who successfully translated their draft position into championship rings.

How Many Teams Will Cooper Flagg Play For in His Career?

Dirk Nowitzki`s career provides a precedent for a Mavericks star to remain in Dallas for his entire playing tenure. The greatest player in franchise history spent 21 seasons with Dallas—the longest tenure for any player with a single team in NBA history. The Mavericks should be particularly motivated to retain Flagg for as long as possible, especially given the fan base`s discontent following the trade of Doncic, who was widely seen as Nowitzki`s natural successor.

Nevertheless, predicting any player in the modern NBA to remain with a single team throughout their entire career seems like a quixotic endeavor. Among players who debuted in the 21st century, only four of the top 50 scorers have never changed teams: Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, and Nikola Jokic. It remains plausible that even a couple of these single-franchise players might eventually move before their careers conclude. Recent history overwhelmingly suggests that Flagg will, at some point, transition to another team.

Where Will Cooper Flagg Rank in the 2025 NBA Rankings?

It`s rare for a rookie to even crack the Top 100 rankings, but Flagg enters the NBA capable of making a broad enough impact on games to warrant inclusion. The question isn`t so much whether he`ll deserve a spot, but rather how optimistic our ESPN panel will ultimately be about his specific ranking.

Personally, I tend to lean conservative when estimating a rookie`s first-season impact. In the draft process, projecting a prospect`s eventual career peak is one thing, but the initial learning curve is a complex variable, and every player adapts differently. Flagg stands apart from most prospects—he`s not only accustomed to being young for his competition level but also capably proved his readiness for top-tier play at any age during his time at Duke. While I wouldn`t expect Dallas to burden him with extensive offensive creation duties, or for Flagg to be immediately prepared for such a role, his defensive instincts, passing acumen, and tenacity will all greatly benefit him as he adjusts to a team poised for competitiveness.

Without overthinking it, I would place Flagg in the 76-100 range. Our panel appears more optimistic at this juncture. The mere fact that we are even having this discussion already underscores his exceptional quality and promising future.