The UEFA Champions League returns for its second week of group stage action, promising a series of captivating encounters. Among them, the clash between Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys stands out. Originally envisioned by many as a potential 2025 final, this fixture now sees two squads, both grappling with challenges, vying for a crucial spot in the top eight.
Football fans also anticipate Jose Mourinho`s return to Stamford Bridge, where his Benfica team will undoubtedly aim to exploit any vulnerabilities in Enzo Maresca`s Chelsea side, especially with growing unrest among the home supporters. Furthermore, this week`s schedule features potential giant-killing opportunities: Real Madrid travels to Kazakhstan to face Kairat Almaty, and Champions League newcomers Pafos host a formidable Bayern Munich. These compelling matchups form the basis of our four critical questions for this week.
1. Will PSG and Barcelona deliver a clash worthy of a final?
Tuesday brings a match many of us had hoped would be the ultimate showdown on May 31. Last season`s semifinals, particularly Inter`s narrow victory, offered immense thrills and drama, but Yann Sommer`s stubborn defense prevented Europe`s two most potent attacks from clashing in what could have been a Barcelona versus Paris Saint-Germain final. This time, the stakes are considerably lower – both teams can likely afford a loss and still advance to the top eight of the league phase – and the available talent may not be at its peak.
Several key players are sidelined: last season`s standout Champions League performer Raphinha is out for at least a fortnight, while many decisive players from PSG`s winning run are either doubtful or confirmed absentees. Ballon d`Or holder Ousmane Dembele has been a major doubt for some time, and in Saturday`s 2-0 win over Auxerre, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia joined him on the sidelines with what appeared to be a thigh muscle issue. Vitinha soon followed. This represents just the tip of a challenging iceberg; any neutral spectator would surely love to see talents like Joao Neves, Joan Garcia, Gavi, Desire Doue, Marquinhos, and Alejandro Balde grace the Olympic Stadium.
Does this mean the spectacle is lost? Not entirely. For starters, there should still be plenty of stars shining brightly, none more so than Lamine Yamal. He made a brilliant return from injury, scoring within a minute – his mere hint of cutting onto his left foot was enough for Real Sociedad to grant him ample space down the right to deliver a cross for Robert Lewandowski to head home the winner. The direct battle between Yamal and Nuno Mendes on the flanks promises to be box office. Similarly, the absence of many PSG stars might provide an opportunity for Pedri and Frenkie De Jong to demonstrate why they are considered among the world`s best midfield pairings.
Indeed, while some individual talent might be missing, the tactical systems and distinct playing styles ensure an intriguing matchup regardless of the specific personnel. How will Barcelona`s high-pressing, “everyone in the opposition half” approach off the ball fare against a PSG team capable of playing through the lines? Conversely, can the holders, known for their fluid positioning, maintain this strength with a heavily altered squad? Luis Enrique frequently praised his players` selfless approach last season; perhaps we will now see an even more organized and united group without its biggest names.
Without the big names on both sides – Dembele`s relentless energy, Raphinha`s sheer ingenuity, or Kvaratskhelia`s flair – this match might not be the dream encounter many hoped for. Yet, if last season taught us anything, it`s that football rarely delivers exactly the games we expect. That, however, doesn`t mean what we get instead isn`t something truly special.
2. Is Arsenal`s left eight adopting a more cautious role?
When Arsenal secured Martin Zubimendi earlier this year, winning a transfer battle against Liverpool and Manchester City, it seemed their midfield setup was solidified for the foreseeable future. The Spaniard was an upgrade in the single pivot role, leaving Declan Rice – who arrived from West Ham in 2023 and initially seemed destined for the pivot – to continue his impressive work as Arsenal`s left eight. This role was characterized by fewer touches, late runs into the penalty area, powerful off-the-ball movement, and crucial high regains.
However, preseason offered the first hints of a potential shift, with Mikel Arteta deploying his team in a double pivot featuring Rice and Zubimendi. Was this merely an experimental look at alternative formations, rather than a deviation from their primary template? Perhaps, perhaps not. What appears to be emerging through the first six Premier League games is that the Gunners` left eight is sitting deeper, involving himself in the final third less frequently.
Rice has started five of those games (Mikel Merino filled in for him against Nottingham Forest due to international form) and has seen the proportion of his touches in the attacking third decrease from 37% to 28%. His shots per 90 minutes have almost halved, and he hasn`t had a shot from open play in the Premier League since the opening weekend. Crucially, his touches in Zone 14, the prime attacking area just outside the box, have plummeted.
The explanation for this shift might be straightforward: Arsenal`s challenging fixture list. Away games at Liverpool, Newcastle United, and a surprisingly competent Manchester United, coupled with a home match against Manchester City, are the types of encounters where, planned or not, Rice might naturally need to operate from a deeper position.
Furthermore, other games haven`t offered many conclusive data points. Against both Leeds and Nottingham Forest, Arsenal lost Martin Odegaard to first-half shoulder injuries. Given that Ethan Nwaneri is inclined to take more risks with possession, did Rice and Merino position themselves more cautiously to provide cover? It`s not as if Rice advancing from midfield is forbidden; he did so effectively at St. James` Park on Sunday, and even in this deeper role, his performance has been better than many acknowledge. If this deeper positioning becomes the norm, it might not be detrimental for Arsenal, but for now, it`s unclear if it`s a deliberate tactical evolution or merely a reaction to recent demanding fixtures.
The latter suspicion seems more plausible. Clarity might emerge against Olympiacos, where Arteta should be able to field his first-choice midfield following Odegaard`s return to training on Friday.
3. Can Chelsea overcome Jose Mourinho`s defensive setup?
This question rests on two significant assumptions: first, that Benfica will arrive at Stamford Bridge with a defensive gameplan aimed at frustrating Chelsea, and second, that they possess the capability to execute such an approach. The first assumption is difficult to gauge, as Mourinho was only appointed Benfica manager on September 18, and results against domestic opponents like Gil Vicente and Rio Ave offer limited insight into his strategy for Chelsea. As for their defensive capability, one might doubt it based on their performance against Qarabag. However, with Mourinho now in the dugout, his legendary ability to coach defensive shape cannot be understated.
Let`s assume Benfica fulfills their part of the bargain, and “The Special One” transports us back two decades to an era where his every pronouncement redefined football`s vocabulary, with his opposition “parking the bus.” Can Chelsea break through such a resilient defense? Maresca is well aware of the challenge, stating, “I think from Benfica you can expect the way they are playing now, 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 but you can also expect that they can play back five. So I expect two or three different things and we have a plan for these two or three things that I expect.”
Despite Chelsea`s recent struggles – a win over Lincoln, a draw, and three defeats in their last five matches – Maresca`s side has generally appeared competent in controlling games when level or trailing, at least when playing 11 against 11 and not facing Bayern Munich. Their cautious approach to building attacks might frustrate supporters but it effectively minimizes the risk of leaving themselves open to counter-attacks, which could be Benfica`s best route to snatching a goal. Since the start of last season, they comfortably rank third in the Premier League for non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) when the score is tied. However, the drawbacks of their caution became evident when they took the lead against Brighton on Saturday and seemed to ease off even before Trevoh Chalobah`s red card. Analytics reflect this pattern: Chelsea ranks seventh for npxGD when leading, trailing Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal. While other teams aggressively pursue more goals, Maresca`s side too often fails to land the killer blow.
If intricate guile is required to break down Benfica`s backline, then Cole Palmer`s absence will certainly be felt. However, if Maresca trusts Enzo Fernandez in an attacking midfield role, he can at least expect some of the goal threat typically provided by his No.10. While Opta`s sample size for Fernandez in a more advanced position is limited, since the start of last season, he has averaged 0.54 npxG and 0.1 expected assists when freed from the double pivot. Against Brighton this past weekend and Aston Villa in February, he displayed a Lampard-esque ability to find prime attacking space in the box to convert close-range chances – qualities that will be vital if Benfica opts to pack their penalty area, particularly with Joao Pedro a doubt. Chelsea`s success will also depend on wingers who can stretch the game to the bylines, creating space for Fernandez and others. Alejandro Garnacho and Pedro Neto are capable of this, and Estevao Willian is consistently demonstrating this ability.
“He`s doing very good, he`s doing very well,” said Maresca of Estevao. “It`s not easy. We said already for a 17, 18-year-old player to arrive here in Europe with a big club like Chelsea and show immediately the quality that he has. We are very happy with him. He`s a very good boy. It`s what we need also in terms of energy.”
Chelsea, therefore, appears to have all the necessary ingredients to carve their way through Benfica. If doing so allows Maresca to temper some of the adulation Stamford Bridge will undoubtedly direct towards Mourinho, that will make the victory all the sweeter.
4. Why the persistent feeling that Pafos could upset Bayern Munich?
Look, this is likely a personal inclination, not necessarily a shared sentiment. You are probably quite convinced that Bayern Munich, who have scored an astonishing 28 goals in their first seven games of the season, will impart some harsh but necessary lessons to Champions League debutants Pafos about life in Europe`s elite competition. And you are almost certainly correct.
And yet, I cannot shake the feeling that this season`s major Champions League upset is brewing. In my pre-tournament predictions, I backed Pafos for a win, and I`m sticking to that conviction this week. Bayern, I maintain, are an excellent team; their winning the Champions League would not be a great shock. Still, there`s something I, as someone paid to analyze soccer, cannot quite pinpoint.
Perhaps it`s the fact that Pafos` player pool looks surprisingly solid. There`s certainly a stubbornness to a team that held Olympiacos scoreless for over an hour despite being a man down in their league phase opener, restricting the Greek champions to just 1.52 xG with their numerical advantage (it`s equally impressive that in the first 25 minutes, Pafos limited them to just one shot).
More than that, though, there`s something about Bayern that suggests they could be vulnerable here. Maybe it`s that they are no longer the epitome of efficiency on (and especially off) the pitch that they were 15 years ago when Germany was a global football powerhouse. Even if several of their center-backs have improved under Vincent Kompany, they still feel like they have a defensive flaw waiting to be exposed. Whatever the reason, they just don`t possess the same impenetrable aura as the very best Bayern teams, the ones who might not win every trophy but would very rarely complicate things for themselves.
This perspective might seem incredibly foolish by Tuesday at 5 p.m. ET. It might even look foolish by 3:10 p.m. However, know this: I have a distinct feeling about this one.
