Can Chelsea Win the Premier League Title?

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Preview Can Chelsea Win the Premier League Title?

As reigning champions of the world and Europe, Chelsea sets its sights on the ultimate domestic prize: the Premier League title. The pressing question is whether Enzo Maresca`s squad can truly achieve the unprecedented feat of simultaneously holding the Conference League, Club World Cup, and Premier League titles.

According to Levi Colwill, such success isn`t merely possible, but a fundamental expectation for anyone wearing the Chelsea jersey. After securing the Club World Cup, Colwill emphasized Chelsea`s strong team identity: “We stick together no matter what. Legends like John Terry, Frank Lampard, and Didier Drogba established this ethos, and we`re committed to continuing it.” He added, “While they were incredible, we believe our current young squad comprises the best players, and our ambition is to secure the biggest trophies for Chelsea. Our 3-0 victory over PSG, widely considered the world`s best, demonstrates our capability.”

It`s understandable for the long-serving academy graduate to feel optimistic, especially after Chelsea`s stellar performance—their best since winning the 2020-21 Champions League to qualify for this tournament. Enzo Maresca`s tactical plan was flawlessly executed, with his players displaying aggression, organization, and fearlessness. Sustaining such a level of play throughout a 38-game Premier League season would undeniably make them formidable contenders.

However, this consistent performance is precisely Chelsea`s challenge. Maresca`s first season saw them rarely replicate that high standard, leading to a 15-point deficit behind Liverpool and a struggle for a top-five finish, despite early-season optimism about title contention. The final Premier League standings provided a more accurate picture than the fleeting success in November and December, showing them firmly in the third-to-fifth bracket but distant from a title race.

Last season, Chelsea`s scoring output was insufficient. While their defense ranked third-best with 43 goals conceded, it needed to be significantly better given only 64 goals scored. Their expected goal difference (xGD) of 21.16 was less than half of Liverpool`s and considerably lower than even an injury-plagued Arsenal`s.

The victory against PSG was exceptional precisely because it was uncharacteristic. Against the other top-four teams last season, Chelsea managed only one win (a 3-1 defeat of a complacent Liverpool), one draw, and four losses. Despite commanding two-thirds of possession, Luis Enrique`s European champions registered just 17 touches in Chelsea`s box – four fewer than Chelsea`s average top-flight opponent. Usually passive, Chelsea started aggressively, dictating play from the first whistle. Maresca`s side was brilliant, but unusually so.

There`s a risk that cup successes might overstate Chelsea`s overall progress under Maresca. While they dominated the Conference League as expected, their Club World Cup run benefited from favorable circumstances. Their path to second place became significantly easier after Benfica unexpectedly eliminated Bayern Munich, and then Al-Hilal and Fluminense removed Manchester City and Inter from contention.

This isn`t to diminish their impressive victory over the European champions or the joy fans feel seeing the gold badge on their sponsor-free kits. However, Todd Boehly`s confident assertion that “The boys have shown that they are a force to be reckoned with” should be balanced against the reality that their semifinal opponent, Fluminense, is rated by Opta as being slightly weaker than teams like Coventry City and Elche.

While this cup win provides momentum, many question how it will impact their performance after a five-week break before the 2025-26 season. Although there`s undeniable individual growth within the young squad, significant concerns remain regarding their transfer strategy.

Joao Pedro showed early promise in the U.S., but excluding penalties, he has just 10 goals from 58 Premier League matches over two seasons, with averages of 2.5 shots and 0.3 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes. In comparison, Nicolas Jackson, now attracting interest from Manchester United and AC Milan, boasts 24 goals, 2.78 shots, and 0.55 xG. While replacing Noni Madueke with Jamie Gittens offers Maresca another left-wing option—a position Chelsea has struggled with—it`s hard to shake the feeling that Gittens` impressive short-term trajectory in a tougher league might only see him perform at a similar level to the player he`s replacing.

Comparison of Noni Madueke and Jamie Gittens
How Noni Madueke and Jamie Gittens compare in domestic competition last season.
Source: TruMedia

Chelsea`s current strategy is perplexing, especially given their Club World Cup prize money. There`s a clear path for them to achieve legitimate excellence by deviating from their usual model of investing in high-potential, $70 million-ish youngsters and instead prioritizing established star quality. For instance, if they acquired a striker of Victor Osimhen`s caliber, an elite central defender to solidify their backline, and a top-tier goalkeeper, they would have a truly complete team.

Despite these concerns, the future remains promising for a team built around Moises Caicedo`s defensive anchoring and Cole Palmer`s creative brilliance. With quality players like Reece James, Marc Cucurella, and Enzo Fernandez supporting them, Chelsea isn`t far from becoming a title contender, even if their current recruitment strategy appears suboptimal.

Ultimately, if Chelsea`s peak performance involves dismantling European champions like PSG (even if PSG appeared fatigued), then there`s a compelling reason to believe in their potential. However, the reigning world champions will need to consistently deliver many more performances of this caliber before they can realistically claim to be the best team in England.