Midway through the September international break, qualification for the 2026 World Cup is progressing rapidly, with 17 nations already securing their places. CONMEBOL has finalized its six South American representatives. Morocco has become the first African team to qualify, dominating their group and eyeing a historic performance. Egypt, South Africa, and potentially the Cape Verde Islands could soon follow suit, aiming to make their mark on the global stage.
Consistent with our previous rankings, we are currently focusing on a list of 32 teams for easier management. Once the full roster of 48 teams for the tournament is confirmed, we will provide a comprehensive ranking of all participating nations.
1. Spain (–)
Despite concerns that their somewhat compact squad might challenge the European champions, Spain commenced their qualifying campaign flawlessly. They established a commanding 3-0 lead against Bulgaria by halftime, effectively cruising to victory. Future matches, including one against Turkey, will further test their mettle.
2. France (+1)
Previously ranked closely with Spain and Argentina, France, the 2018 champions, consistently demonstrate strong tournament pedigree. They continue to integrate new stars into Didier Deschamps` cautious yet effective system. Michael Olise`s standout performance in the 2-0 win against Ukraine highlighted their depth, with talents like Ousmane Dembele, Hugo Ekitike, and Maghnes Akliouche making substitute appearances, and Marcus Thuram not even needed.
3. Argentina (-1)
Already guaranteed the top spot in CONMEBOL, Argentina showed no signs of slowing down, securing a 3-0 victory over Venezuela. This match served as a poignant farewell for Lionel Messi, who scored a brace in what is widely expected to be his final official national team game on Argentine soil. While his participation in next summer`s World Cup remains uncertain, his significant impact in the less intense international game is undeniable.
4. Brazil (–)
Brazil`s recent 3-0 win over Chile was a rare display of their attacking prowess, notably achieved without key players such as Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, and Neymar. This performance suggests that Carlo Ancelotti might be the ideal coach to integrate Brazil`s top talent into a cohesive system. The impressive form of Gabriel Martinelli and Estevao could certainly influence his tactical considerations.
5. Portugal (–)
Roberto Martinez`s squad showcased an overwhelming amount of talent in their 5-0 win against Armenia, benefiting from strong club connections. The partnership of Vitinha and Joao Neves, reprising their Paris Saint-Germain midfield roles, provides a significant advantage. While Cristiano Ronaldo`s role in the World Cup might spark debate, his consistent ability to score against lesser opponents remains invaluable.
6. England (–)
England`s performance at home against Andorra raises questions: is it a sign that Thomas Tuchel is still refining his team`s strategy, or is he deliberately embedding an approach for the World Cup? The answer might not be clear until next summer, but with a Champions League-winning coach, they earn the benefit of the doubt. Their upcoming match in Serbia will provide crucial insights into their progress.
7. Uruguay (+2)
Among the South American nations to secure their spot in North America, Marcelo Bielsa`s side impressed with a dominant display against Peru at home. Their midfield trio of Rodrigo Bentancur, Federico Valverde, and Giorgian De Arrascaeta appears to be perfectly balanced. Should Darwin Nunez rediscover his form in Saudi Arabia, this team could achieve significant success.
8. Morocco (+2)
As the first African team to qualify, the Atlas Lions are closing in on Spain`s record of 15 international wins, needing just three more. This squad retains the core that led them to the 2022 semifinals, augmented by new talents like Brahim Diaz, who has scored nine goals in his first 12 international appearances.
9. Netherlands (-1)
Ronald Koeman`s team started qualification strongly, and a direct path to the World Cup remains within their grasp. However, a 1-1 home draw against Poland exposed persistent flaws. For years, the Dutch have struggled to convert high possession into decisive chances, a pattern seen in Rotterdam where 74% possession yielded only 14 shots and one goal, making them vulnerable to Matty Cash`s late equalizer.
10. Germany (-3)
A remarkable record in international football concluded bleakly on Thursday night as Germany suffered their first-ever away loss in 53 World Cup qualifiers. They had no grounds for complaint, as Slovakia thoroughly deserved their 2-0 victory, creating unexpected complications in what seemed like a manageable group of four. Julian Nagelsmann`s side will likely qualify and rise in these rankings, but for now, they face some difficulties.
11. Norway (–)
At the time of writing, there hasn`t been much new to learn about Norway, though a 1-0 win over Finland is a respectable result. Three of their four remaining qualifiers are at home, but questions about this talented squad`s ability to reach a major tournament will persist until they navigate their crucial final match against Italy in Milan. Still, a run of nine wins in their last 10 games suggests they can deliver results.
12. Egypt (+1)
Mohamed Salah and his teammates are not quite there yet, but they have guaranteed a top-two finish and would secure a return to the global stage with a win in Burkina Faso on September 9. While Salah and Omar Marmoush often grab headlines, their record of just two goals conceded in seven games highlights the team`s other major strength: reliable defensive club connections combined with Premier League attacking talent.
13. Japan (+3)
Our highest risers, despite not having played a competitive game, this jump acknowledges Japan`s previous underestimation and their growing profile in European football. Ritsu Doan has already proven a smart acquisition for Eintracht Frankfurt this season. Meanwhile, stars like Takumi Iwata and Kyogo Furuhashi, integral to Birmingham City`s strong Championship start, struggle to even get a call-up to Hajime Moriyasu`s squad. Japan is shaping up to be a World Cup dark horse.
14. Italy (-2)
A 5-0 victory over Estonia was an encouraging, if expected, start to Gennaro Gattuso`s tenure, but Italy took some time to find their rhythm before Moise Kean opened the scoring in the 58th minute. Their two-place drop, however, is not due to this, but because teams above them are consistently getting crucial results. Israel`s win in Moldova was a suboptimal outcome for the Azzurri, who risk falling out of Group I`s top two if they lose to Israel in Debrecen. The stakes are simply too high to elevate this team further.
15. Ecuador (–)
Ecuador excels at keeping clean sheets, having gone to Paraguay and held firm, extending their run to four consecutive matches without conceding. Had they not been docked three points for falsifying Byron Castillo`s birth documents, La Tri would be second in the CONMEBOL standings—a deserved reward for a team that has conceded only five goals in 17 qualifiers.
16. Belgium (-2)
Barring a catastrophic turn of events, Belgium`s current qualifying cycle against teams like Liechtenstein (whom they beat 6-0) and Kazakhstan won`t reveal much. The team`s immediate focus is to avoid slip-ups in upcoming matches against North Macedonia (home) and Wales (away). Success in these games will secure their World Cup spot, even if their current performances fail to ignite much excitement.
17. South Korea (+2)
Son Heung-min`s impressive start in MLS bodes well for South Korea. The 33-year-old may have lost some of the pace that allowed him to dominate Premier League defenders, but his performance in the 2-0 win over the United States suggests he still has plenty to offer internationally. Behind him, Paik Seung-ho and Kim Min-jae form a robust core, providing significant strength to the team`s spine.
18. Mexico (–)
A 0-0 draw with Japan extended Mexico`s unbeaten streak to seven games, reinforcing their position in the third or fourth tier of World Cup teams. While not considered potential winners, with favorable draws and strong performances, the Gold Cup champions can aspire to make a deep run in the tournament.
19. Croatia (-3)
Croatia faces a slight downgrade for their narrow 1-0 win against the Faroe Islands, though an exceptional goalkeeping display by Mattias Lamhauge played a role. This match also featured a younger starting XI, with talents like Martin Baturina and Petar Sucic ahead of veterans such as Ivan Perisic and Luka Modric. Their 5-1 win over Czechia and forcing France to penalties in the Nations League show their ability to perform against top opposition, but their consistency has been an issue for nearly two years.
20. Colombia (+1)
Bound for the World Cup, Colombia ended a six-game winless streak with a decisive victory over Bolivia. Nearly 12 years after their last World Cup, James Rodriguez remains a star player for Los Cafeteros. The team would greatly benefit from unearthing a high-quality center forward to complement the 34-year-old and Luis Diaz upfront.
21. Ivory Coast (-1)
A pivotal World Cup qualifying match awaits in Franceville when Gabon hosts Ivory Coast. The Elephants` destiny is in their own hands, yet they struggle to gain significant separation from the second-place team. This is particularly remarkable given their impressive record of six wins and a draw with zero goals conceded in seven games, highlighting the extreme difficulty of African qualifying.
22. Algeria (+1)
The Fennecs have less work to do, holding a six-point lead over Uganda with three games remaining. The emergence of Mohamed Amoura, who had an impressive loan spell with Wolfsburg last season, adds youthful vigor and attacking flair to what is otherwise a veteran forward line.
23. Paraguay (NR)
While a team with 13 goals scored and 10 conceded in 17 CONMEBOL qualifiers might not attract queues, Paraguay needn`t worry – they`re returning to the World Cup for the first time since 2010. This is an organized, attritional side, boasting four of the six most frequent tacklers in World Cup qualifying, with only one (Andres Cuba) accumulating over 20 fouls.
24. Iran (–)
Qualification has been relatively straightforward for Iran, currently competing in the CAFA Nations Cup. They will face Uzbekistan in the final, where they are presumed favorites. Given that many of Amir Ghalenoei`s squad play in a domestic league whose teams struggled in the AFC Champions League, this may not be a golden era for Team Melli. However, they remain a team accustomed to winning.
25. Canada (+2)
Canada may lack the depth of other host nations and recently exited the Gold Cup early. However, their 3-0 victory in Romania, their first triumph on European soil since 2011, bodes well for Jesse Marsch`s side. This team appears to have a clear understanding of their 4-4-2 system, maximizing the potential of key players, notably Jonathan David.
26. USA (-4)
Frankly, the situation doesn`t look promising for the USMNT. Mauricio Pochettino`s assertion that the USA had the upper hand against South Korea in a friendly falls apart when considering they were chasing the game for 72 minutes. For much of that time, their main chance fell to substitute Chris Richards, and a string of late, scrappy misses by Folarin Balogun artificially inflated their xG tally.
Pochettino faces too many lineup uncertainties without sufficient competitive matches to resolve them. Key positions like No.1 or No.9 remain undefined. Tyler Adams and Richards are the only two players consistently exposed to top international opponents, yet they lack established partners. Christian Pulisic continues to take corners for unknown reasons. While Malik Tillman`s absence from the September squad is understandable given his integration with Bayer Leverkusen, it means one less opportunity to assess his fit alongside Pulisic and the attack.
Even if these issues eventually coalesce, the talent ceiling of this squad doesn`t match the promise it showed in 2022. This is normal; many promising players don`t fully reach their potential in any national setup. However, successful teams have a constant influx of new talent. When Weston McKennie struggles, a new player should be aggressively vying for his starting spot. This hasn`t happened with the USMNT. While a dream scenario of passionate home crowds inspiring them through knockout rounds next summer is possible, it feels less realistic than a practical outcome.
27. Australia (+1)
They are halfway to winning the “Soccer Ashes” – a real thing, apparently, and one we all hope is the only Ashes Australia wins in the coming months.
28. Sweden (-3)
As previously stated, Sweden could quickly rise in these rankings if they secure their World Cup spot. However, qualification has become marginally tougher after a last-minute goal from Slovenia earned them a 2-2 draw in Ljubljana. While usually a decent result, UEFA has placed Jon Dahl Tomasson`s talented squad in a particularly challenging group, which Switzerland believes is theirs to win.
29. Senegal (-3)
Senegal has dropped in the rankings through no fault of their own; their last match was a solid 2-0 win over Sudan. Instead, it`s due to their precarious position, as Pape Thiaw`s side keeps winning, but so does DR Congo. If Senegal reaches the World Cup, it`s plausible they could reprise their lockdown defending from AFCON 2022, relying on veterans like Edouard Mendy and Kalidou Koulibaly for big victories.
30. Uzbekistan (–)
Iran`s opponents in the CAFA Nations Cup final are on an impressive undefeated streak dating back to November 14 last year. During this period, they`ve proven competitive against more successful Asian teams, but it`s hard to predict how this will translate to a World Cup. Particularly, only four of their players compete in larger European leagues (three in Turkey, and Abdukodir Khusanov at Manchester City).
31. Jordan (-2)
Since our last update, Jordan drew 0-0 with Russia. Not much to elaborate on here.
32. New Zealand (–)
Similar to the above, little can be gleaned from one or two matches against Australia. This ranking might improve in October when the All Whites travel to Poland and Norway for friendly matches.
