Predicting the performance of NBA rookies is notoriously challenging. Their readiness for the league`s unparalleled speed, power, and explosiveness determines much of their immediate impact. The NBA`s intensity sets it apart from any other basketball league globally, presenting a unique hurdle for young talents.
Some rookies quickly adapt and make an immediate impact, while others might struggle to ever adjust to the NBA`s demands. A third group simply needs time; they might `click` during their debut season or the following offseason. For fantasy basketball drafters, the key is to discern which category each prospect falls into to make informed selections.
This guide aims to assist with that crucial evaluation.
My research for this draft guide began during the NBA playoffs, focusing on how each prospect`s skillset aligned with potential team needs. I then attended the Las Vegas Summer League to observe these top talents firsthand. My goal was to assess their movement, energy levels, and overall tenacity—qualities essential for a successful NBA transition.
Below, we delve into the top ten rookies and their potential draft value in fantasy basketball leagues.
Tier 1: Early-Round Fantasy Picks
Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Dallas Mavericks
Long hailed as a future NBA superstar, Cooper Flagg`s rookie season expectations mirror those of a generational talent like Victor Wembanyama. At Duke, Flagg showcased his all-around game, leading the team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. His Summer League performance confirmed his NBA readiness, displaying the requisite size, strength, and mental fortitude for immediate impact. With Kyrie Irving sidelined for a significant portion of the season due to an ACL injury, Flagg is poised to step in as a primary perimeter offensive weapon for the Mavericks. He projects firmly within the preseason fantasy basketball top 50 and is a strong candidate for selection in the first four rounds of drafts.
Tier 2: Mid-to-Late Round Potential
Beyond Cooper Flagg, numerous other rookies possess the talent to deliver fantasy-relevant statistics, though their immediate impact isn`t guaranteed, potentially taking months to materialize. We`ll explore prospects with the best opportunity to contribute early enough to warrant drafting in fantasy basketball leagues.
Ace Bailey, SF/PF, Utah Jazz
Ace Bailey was widely regarded as one of the draft`s most NBA-ready talents, alongside Cooper Flagg and his college teammate, Dylan Harper. Unlike Harper, who landed with the depth-rich San Antonio Spurs, Bailey was drafted by the rebuilding Utah Jazz to be their offensive focal point. He has a strong chance to lead his team in scoring as a rookie and is considered the most likely prospect, apart from Flagg, to provide significant fantasy production from day one.
Dylan Harper, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs
Dylan Harper was arguably the most impressive rookie at the Las Vegas Summer League, second only to Cooper Flagg. His combination of skill, size, and athleticism was standout, drawing comparisons to Brandon Roy`s exceptional rookie guard performance two decades prior. If Harper had joined a team with a clear need for his immediate contributions, he would likely be a mid-round fantasy draft pick. However, the San Antonio Spurs boast a crowded backcourt with All-Star De`Aaron Fox, Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, and seasoned wings Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson. While the Spurs view Harper as a crucial part of their future, his immediate fantasy impact might be limited due to playing time constraints. His immense talent and upside still make him a valuable bench stash in fantasy leagues, even if his breakout is delayed.
Egor Demin, PG, Brooklyn Nets
Among the Nets` five first-round selections, Egor Demin appears most poised for immediate production. This sizable point guard offers a good fit in the starting backcourt alongside the smaller Cam Thomas. Despite dealing with plantar fascia issues that could initially impede him, a healthy Demin has the potential to be an all-around contributor, valuable in both points and category-based fantasy leagues.
VJ Edgecombe, SG, Philadelphia 76ers
Baylor product VJ Edgecombe is projected to start as a wing for the 76ers, especially with Jared McCain sidelined. His explosive athleticism and quickness make him an effective finisher in the paint and on fast breaks, while also contributing significantly on defense. Edgecombe`s defensive prowess could lead to valuable contributions in steals and even blocks—a rarity for a guard. While his role may not translate to high scoring due to a lack of long-range shooting, his combination of talent, opportunity, and upside makes him an intriguing late-round speculative pick in fantasy drafts.
Tier 3: Deep League & Watchlist Prospects
Tre Johnson, SG, Washington Wizards
Tre Johnson stands out as one of the draft`s premier 3-point shooters, capable of hitting with high volume and accuracy both off the catch and the dribble. His shot-creation ability is a significant asset for the rebuilding Wizards, who lack perimeter scoring. Johnson presents an attractive late-round fantasy dart throw; if he taps into his potential as a high-teen scorer and leads rookies in 3-pointers, he could evolve into a valuable flex starter by season`s end.
Kon Knueppel, SG, Charlotte Hornets
Kon Knueppel also makes a strong case for the best shooter in this draft class, primarily known for his spot-up ability rather than self-creation. His value in fantasy basketball comes from being an elite 3-point specialist playing alongside primary creators and scorers like LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Collin Sexton. Their offensive gravity should create numerous open looks for Knueppel. While his scoring volume might not translate to high value in points leagues, his potential for a significant number of 3-pointers makes him a viable option in category-based leagues.
Jeremiah Fears, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans
The former Oklahoma Sooner, Jeremiah Fears, is a tenacious shooter and scorer from the wing. He could see increased minutes early in the season for the New Orleans Pelicans due to Dejounte Murray`s absence until the new year. While Fears projects as a sixth man at best, making his immediate fantasy relevance uncertain, his upside warrants monitoring as a potential free agent pickup.
Khaman Maluach, C, Phoenix Suns
Khaman Maluach was drafted by the Phoenix Suns as a defensive-minded center. He is expected to start the season coming off the bench, primarily backing up Mark Williams. However, it`s worth noting Williams` history of injuries, having missed 140 of 246 career games and never playing more than 44 games in a single season. Should Maluach step into a starting role, his shot-blocking prowess could make him an attractive asset in category fantasy leagues.
Nique Clifford, SG, Sacramento Kings
Nique Clifford, an older rookie at 23, warrants a mention. Following an impressive fifth collegiate season, he delivered a dominant performance at the Las Vegas Summer League. He is slated to be the backup to DeMar DeRozan, which suggests limited early minutes. Nevertheless, he`s a free agent prospect to keep an eye on once the regular season gets underway.
